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データ基準日: 2026-10-20 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Long: 20D washout, SIZ26 reclaiming 58 | 2026-10-21

Long silver (SIZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below 56.753 (NEXT S1). The 20-session drawdown of -12.82% has left price at the 20th percentile of its own 20-day channel, while managed-money net length has been cut from 12.5% to 5.18% of open interest — positioning is cleaned out, not crowded. The 2026-10-20 settle of 58 (+1.27%) reclaimed the 57.757 pivot, and early Asia on 2026-10-21 held 58.05–58.326. Fundamentals are mildly supportive: SHFE warrants fell 6,708 kg to 1,396,759 kg and SLV holdings rose 1.22% over 20 sessions, while COMEX registered stock is flat at 103.12 Moz. The gold/silver ratio at the 85th 1Y percentile says silver is lagging, which is upside room if the base holds. Risk: ATR14 of 2.009 (3.46% of price) and a 52-week drawdown of 51.45% mean sizing must be small; a daily close below 56.753 negates the call and opens 55.507.