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データ基準日: 2026-10-20 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZSF27) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D Low 1251 Broken, Crush Margin Support Fails | 2026-10-21

Bearish on Soybeans (ZSF27.CBT). The 2026-10-20 settle of 1248.25 broke below the prior 20-day low of 1251, confirming a downside break of the 20-day channel (1245.5–1327.75) with price at the 3rd percentile of that range. The 5-day change is -2.77% and the 20-day change is -5.83% (settle), with ATR14 at 18.32 (1.47% of price) and RV20 at 12.4%, so realized volatility is elevated relative to the move's magnitude. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16) closed at 1261.25, down 2.38% w/w, and the current week is unfinished. The US soybean crush margin is 2.6065 USD/bu (2026-10-19), at the 65th 1Y and 88th 3Y percentile, but this has not arrested the decline. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -15.25, -1.2%), a roll cost for longs. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is modestly positive (mean +1.84%, median +2.35%, up 10 of 15 years), but is context only. The call is invalidated on a daily close above the NEXT pivot R1 of 1256.67; a break below NEXT S1 1242.67 targets S2 1237.08.