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データ基準日: 2026-10-20 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 643.25 Settle Breaks 20D Low 654, S1 636.5 Next | 2026-10-21

Bearish CBOT December wheat (ZWZ26.CBT): the 2026-10-20 settle of 643.25 broke below the prior 20-day low of 654, confirming a fifth consecutive lower daily close and leaving price at the 1st percentile of its 20-day channel (642.5–717.75). The 20-day change of -10.32% (settle) dwarfs the 5-day -3.88%, so the decline is accelerating, not stabilizing, and ATR14 of 15.5 (2.41% of price, full daily range) says the market can still gap another full point toward next-session S1 at 636.5 without any technical breach. Fundamentals are a headwind: the curve is in contango with M1-M2 at -14.75 (-2.2%) and a roll yield of -8.81%, so longs pay to hold and nearby supply is ample rather than scarce. Seasonality reinforces the downside — the next 20 sessions have averaged -1.73% with only 3 of 15 years positive. Positioning and cross-asset signals (copper/gold at a 96.83% 1Y percentile, oil/gold at 99.6%) show risk appetite concentrated in industrial and energy markets, not grains. The call is invalidated by a daily close back above the next-session pivot P of 649.25, which would reclaim the broken 654 zone and neutralize the breakdown.