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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-20 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: COMEX December gold (GCZ26) below 4149.2, 20D -5.34% | 2026-10-21

Bearish: gold is in a confirmed downtrend and we stay short COMEX December gold (GCZ26) while the price holds below the 4149.2 pivot, with the call invalidated only by a daily close above 4194.0 (R2). The 2026-10-20 settle printed 4142.6, down 0.42% on the day, with 5D -0.83% and 20D -5.34% (settle), leaving price at the 16.3% position of the 20-day 4091.2-4407.5 channel. Early Asian trade on 2026-10-21 (as of 07:00) is at 4139.49, -0.08% vs settle, still pinned under the pivot. Managed-money net length has fallen for four straight CFTC weeks, from 127,389 to 107,089 contracts, yet netPct remains at the 90th percentile of its three-year range, so positioning is still crowded on the long side and vulnerable to further liquidation. Fundamentals offer no offset: COMEX registered inventory is flat at 14.82 Moz, SHFE warrants are drifting lower, and GLD flows are only modestly positive at +0.53% over 20 sessions. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -18.8, roll yield -5.4%), a carry cost for longs, not a support. Cross-asset, the gold/silver ratio at 71.42 sits at the 84.92% one-year percentile, confirming gold is rich relative to silver, while copper/gold at 1.59 (96.83% 1Y) signals pro-growth leadership. Seasonality is a mild headwind (next-20-session mean -0.86%, up only 6 of 15 years). We target a retest of the 4091.2 20-day low on a break of 4123.
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