본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-10-20 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | LONG COMEX Dec-26: Inventory Drain vs Weak Tape | 2026-10-21

We are LONG copper (HG=F, executing COMEX December 2026, HGZ26.CMX) with invalidation on a daily close below 6.5378 (NEXT S1). The call rests on three pillars: first, physical inventories are draining — SHFE warrants fell 6.9% d/d to 32,967 MT [2026-10-20], LME warehouse stock is down 23,700 MT over 20 reports, and COMEX registered is off 5,100 short tons over the same window. Second, positioning has reset: managed-money net length is down 21,464 contracts from the 2026-09-22 peak while price sits only 1.6% below its recent high, leaving room for re-accumulation rather than a crowded exit. Third, the copper/gold ratio at 1.59 sits in the 97th 1-year percentile [2026-10-20], confirming pro-growth leadership. Technically, the 2026-10-20 settle of 6.6035 holds above NEXT pivot P 6.5932 and the 20-day low of 6.509, with ATR14 at 0.1252 (1.9% of price) defining a full daily range of roughly 12.5 cents. Early Asian trade on 2026-10-21 at 07:00 printed 6.6175, up 0.21% versus settle, inside the 6.612–6.6215 intraday band. The 20-day channel of 6.509–6.912 leaves price at the 23rd percentile — a recovery setup, not a breakout. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is mixed (mean +0.2%, median -0.66%, 7 of 15 up years), so the trade is inventory- and positioning-driven, not calendar-driven. A daily close below 6.5378 negates the view; a break above 6.6588 opens 6.7142.