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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-20 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Short: Henry Hub below 20-day pivot, 2.9313 invalidates | 2026-10-21

We are short NYMEX January natural gas (NGZ26) with the 2026-10-20 settle at 2.963 [settle 10-20], and the call invalidates on a daily close above the NEXT pivot 2.9887. The market has lost 9.75% over five sessions and 4.94% over twenty (settle), sitting at the 11th percentile of its 2.912–3.395 20-day channel, with the 2026-10-20 session printing a 2.957 low that has already pierced the NEXT S1 at 2.9313's doorstep. Managed money is net short 126,481 contracts as of 2026-10-13, yet the net short is only at the 38th percentile of its three-year range, so positioning is not crowded enough to force a squeeze. The curve is in steep contango at M1-M2 -0.289 (-8.63%) with a -103.62% roll yield, meaning longs pay heavily to carry and the term structure itself rewards shorts. Seasonality offers a mean +9.7% over the next 20 sessions but only 8 of 15 years positive, a weak offset against the realized trend. The reversal condition is a daily close above 2.9887; below that, the path of least resistance runs toward S2 2.8997 and the 2.912 20-day low.