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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-20 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Shanghai Gold (AU2612) In-depth Report | Bearish: down 4.86% over 20 days, open interest crowding still at a three-year high | 2026-10-21

Direction conclusion: bearish. Shanghai Gold AU2612 settled at 893.02 yuan/gram on [10-20 settlement], down 1.65% over 5 days and 4.86% over 20 days, closing at the 14.4th percentile of the 20-day channel 881.82–952.76, near the 20-day low of 881.82; the night session closed at 890.12, down another 0.32% versus settlement, with weak rebound momentum. On drivers, the US dollar index at 101.71 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.12% form a double headwind; COMEX managed money net longs have been cut for four consecutive weeks but crowding remains at the 90th percentile over three years, so the unwinding is not yet over; SHFE top-20 seats net longs stand at 169,592 lots, narrowing by 2,041 lots versus the prior day, with the main contract falling on reduced open interest as longs exit. The China-vs-international premium narrowed from +0.92% five days ago to +0.35%, indicating China underperforming the international market. Invalidation condition: if the daily close breaks above and holds the next pivot R1 at 898.28, exit shorts.