본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-10-20 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | SHORT: 462 settle breaks 465.75, 20D channel floor gone | 2026-10-21

We are short CBOT December corn (ZCZ26.CBT) with the 2026-10-20 settle at 462, which broke below the prior 20-day low of 465.75 and leaves the market at the 1st percentile of its 461–536.25 20-day range. The 20-day change of -13.93% (settle) is a persistent slide, not a one-day flush: the last five settled bars show lower highs and lower lows from 480.75 on 10-14 to 462 on 10-20, and the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16) closed at 474.25, down 1.15% week-on-week. ATR14 is 10.14, about 2.2% of price as a full daily range, and RV20 is 22.7%, so the move is being realized at elevated volatility while the term structure sits in contango with M1-M2 at -13.5 (-2.81%) and a roll yield of -11.24%, a negative carry for longs. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -0.88%, median -1.96%, up only 5 of 15 years). The invalidation is a daily close back above 466.67 (next-session R1); a break below 459.17 (next-session S1) targets 456.33 (S2), roughly 0.7 ATR further down. No Asia print was available for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday only.