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データ基準日: 2026-10-20 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Backwardation Tightness, Pivot 108.9 Holds | 2026-10-22

We are LONG Brent (BZZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below the 108.9 pivot [settle 10-20]. The call rests on three pillars: a 3.51% M1-M2 backwardation with a 42.13% annualized roll yield that signals prompt tightness, a 14.02% 20-day advance with price at the 82.2% percentile of its 20-day range, and a physical balance that keeps drawing — EIA crude stocks at 412,517 kb are 3.3% below the 5-year same-week average after a 13,881 kb four-week cumulative draw. The 2026-10-20 settle was 108.79, down 0.69% on the day, with early Asia 2026-10-22 06:45 printing 109.97 (+1.08% vs settle) inside a 107.69–111.31 intraday band. ATR14 is 4.12 (3.79% of price, full daily range) and RV20 is 31.5%, while OVX at 53.28 sits at the 54th percentile — optionality is not pricing a collapse. The NEXT ladder gives R1 111.86 and S1 105.84; a break below 108.9 targets 105.84, roughly 0.7×ATR lower, and would negate the long. Seasonality is a headwind (mean -3.42% over the next 20 sessions, up only 4 of 15 years), so the position is sized against that base rate.