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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | LONG: tight physicals, shallow length, buy S1 95.85 | 2026-10-22

We are LONG WTI crude (executed as NYMEX December CLZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below the NEXT pivot S1 at 95.847. The prior session settle was 97.71 [settle 10-21], down 4.01% (settle) after a two-day push to 110.48, the 20-day high; the pullback is a retracement inside an intact uptrend — 5D +2.76% and 20D +6.02% (settle) — not a trend break. Physical balances are supportive: EIA crude stocks of 412,517 kb (as of 2026-10-16) sit 3.3% below the 5-year same-week average after a 4-week cumulative draw of 13,881 kb, gasoline is 5.0% below and distillate 9.0% below, with refinery utilization at 93.4%. The curve is in backwardation (M1-M2 1.8, 1.87%; roll yield 22.5%), confirming prompt tightness. Managed-money net length is only 2.14% of open interest (2026-10-13), a 10.91 3-year percentile — the rally is not crowded, and four weeks of net selling (101,828 to 40,574) is a washout, not distribution. Crack spreads at 56.35 USD/bbl (2026-10-21, 83rd 1Y percentile) keep refiners incentivized to run. Seasonality is a headwind (next-20-session mean -3.62%, up 5 of 15 years) and OVX at 53.28 versus RV20 37.2% prices event risk, so size modestly. No Asia print was captured for this issue. A daily close below 95.847 invalidates; watch-above is R1 99.987.