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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish: Rebound on Reduced Open Interest Awaiting Confirmation | 2026-10-22

Directional conclusion: Bullish, but characterized as a corrective rebound rather than a trend reversal. Iron ore I2701 [10-21 settlement] reported at 680 yuan/ton, closing at 681.5 (+0.07% vs. previous settlement), +1.11% over 5 days, -3.67% over 20 days; price remains at the 27.4th percentile of the 20-day channel of 667–720, near the lower bound. Second, [10-12 to 10-16] the completed weekly line closed at 672.5; this week (starting 10-19) temporarily reported at 681.5 (+1.34%), having recovered last week's losses. Third, seasonality: over the past 13 years, the average move over 20 trading days from the same date is +1.38%, median +2.26%, with gains in 9/13 years. Risk points: the night session on 10-21 from 21:05–23:00 closed at 676, -0.81% versus the day session close, indicating intraday selling pressure; China's tax-adjusted premium is +8.38% (+7.3% five days ago), making the Chinese market relatively expensive versus international markets. Direction invalidation condition: daily close breaks below 676.67 (next session S1) and probes down to 667 (20-day low).