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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Bias | 2026-10-22

Bearish COMEX December gold (GCZ26): the prior session settled at 4150 [settle 10-21], 3.9% below its 20-day-ago level, with managed-money net length still at the 90th percentile of its three-year range even after four straight weekly reductions. The tape is making lower highs into the 4160.6 session ceiling while the next-session pivot sits at 4144.3, so the path of least resistance is a retest of S1 4128 and then S2 4106. Fundamentals offer no offset: COMEX registered inventory is flat at 14.82 Moz, SHFE warrants are pinned at 116,904 kg, and GLD inflows of +0.29% over 20 sessions are marginal against a 23.87% 52-week drawdown backdrop. Implied volatility is the cheapest in a year (GVZ 21.36, 6th percentile) with IV-RV at +3.6 vol points, so downside convexity is underpriced for a market with 68.67 ATR. Cross-asset confirms the pro-growth, anti-gold regime: copper/gold at the 97th 1-year percentile and oil/gold at the 97th. Invalidation is a daily close above R1 4166.3 [NEXT ladder, from 10-21 H/L/C]; a break below S2 4106 targets 4037.
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