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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Long COMEX Dec-26 HGZ26: Range-Lower Bias, 6.5232 Invalidation | 2026-10-22

We are long copper (COMEX December 2026, HGZ26) with the trade invalidated on a daily close below 6.5232, the S1 pivot derived from the 2026-10-21 session. The call rests on three pillars. First, price action: the 2026-10-21 settle of 6.5795 sits at the 24th percentile of the 20-day channel (6.509–6.803), a lower-third location where mean reversion has historically been rewarded, and the 5-day decline of -1.22% (settle) is modest against an ATR14 of 0.1231 (1.87% of price). Second, physicals are tightening at the margin: SHFE warrants fell 17.45% d/d to 27,214 MT as of 2026-10-21, and LME warehouse stock is down 20,450 MT over 20 reports to 233,800 MT as of 2026-10-20, even as COMEX registered stock is flat at 470,900 short ton. Third, positioning has already de-risked: managed-money net length fell from 82,522 to 61,058 contracts over four weeks, cutting crowding from the 69th to the 60th percentile, so the long is not crowded. The copper/gold ratio at 1.59 (96.83% 1Y percentile) confirms pro-growth leadership. Risk: RV20 of 15.2% is low, so a macro shock gaps through stops; the contango (M1-M2 -0.43%) is a roll cost, not a signal.