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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Gold (AU2612) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish bias: crowded positioning unwinds, below 890.06 look to 882.87 | 2026-10-22

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Shanghai Gold AU2612 settled at 890.06 yuan/gram on [10-21 settlement], down 1.1% over 5 days and 4.88% over 20 days; price has fallen to the 7th percentile of the 20-day range 881.82–952.76, approaching the lower bound; the night session from 10-21 21:05 to 10-22 00:20 closed at 890.64, +0.44% versus the day session close, only a technical rebound. On drivers, COT managed-money net positions have been reduced for four consecutive weeks (from 127,389 lots to 107,089 lots), crowding remains at the 90th percentile over 3 years, GVZ implied volatility at 21.36 sits at the 6th percentile over 1 year, and the options market has not priced downside risk; the main contract fell on open-interest decline with longs exiting, and top-20 seats net long narrowed to 166,712 lots. The international-versus-China premium turned from +1.41% to -0.4%, with the RMB leg relatively weaker. Invalidation conditions: daily close firmly above 893.45 (next pivot R1), or COT net positions turning to a weekly increase.