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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Copper (CU2611) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: Inventory Drawdown Cannot Offset International Fund Position Cuts | 2026-10-22

Direction conclusion: bearish bias. Shanghai Copper CU2611 [10-21 settlement] 109040 yuan/ton, down 0.38% intraday, down 2.07% over 5 days, still up 1.64% over 20 days, at the 38.7th percentile of the 20-day channel 106890–111770, approaching the lower edge. On drivers, COMEX registered warrants stand at 470,900 short tons and LME inventory at 233,800 tons at elevated levels; international managed funds have cut net longs for four consecutive weeks to 61,058 lots; Shanghai Copper top-20 seats hold net shorts of 23,364 lots, with open interest rising on falling prices and shorts taking the initiative; the international market is down 2.58% over 20 days, underperforming the Chinese market. Support comes from SHFE warrants drawing down 17.45% in a single day to 27,214 tons and Yangshan bill premiums rising to 135 USD/ton. Invalidation condition: if the daily close breaks above 109316.67 (next session pivot R1) and holds, exit short positions; watch 108426.67 (S1) on the downside.