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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-depth Analysis Report | Bullish: Short Covering and Inventory Destocking Resonate | 2026-10-22

Bullish. Rebar RB2701 settled at 3080 yuan/ton on [10-21 settlement], closed the day session at 3081 (+0.39%); open interest fell by 18,498 lots while prices rose, indicating short covering rather than active long chasing. The top 20 seats held a net long of 16,696 lots, expanding by 31,307 lots versus the prior day, with seats adding longs and cutting shorts, showing alignment between industrial and speculative flows. On fundamentals, late-September inventories at key steel mills stood at 15.65 million tons, down 8.4% month-on-month, a clear signal of supply-side contraction; early-October social inventories were 9.39 million tons, up 2.7% month-on-month, with post-holiday restocking yet to be confirmed. Technically, price sits at the 32.2% percentile of the 20-day channel of 3053–3140, with ATR14 at 26.57, indicating mild volatility. Invalidation conditions: daily close below 3053 (20-day low), or loss of the next pivot S1 at 3073.33 with positions rebuilding.