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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Base Above 57.035, 20D Drawdown Overdone | 2026-10-22

We are LONG silver (COMEX December silver SIZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below 57.035 (NEXT S1). The call rests on three pillars: first, price has stabilized after a -11.17% 20-day drawdown (settle 10-21), holding the 55.56 20-day low for six sessions while the 5-day change is +3.28% (settle 10-21); second, physical and ETF flows are constructive — COMEX registered inventory rose 6.36 Moz over 20 reports to 104.24 Moz (as of 10-19), SHFE warrants fell 1.33% d/d to 1,378,149 kg (as of 10-21), and SLV holdings gained 1.57% over 20 sessions to 498,508,579 oz (10-20); third, managed-money net length has been cut from 13,309 to 5,619 contracts over four weeks (COT 10-13), with crowding at the 33.74 percentile, leaving room to rebuild. The gold/silver ratio at 71.91 (10-21) sits at the 85.71% 1-year percentile, meaning silver has lagged gold and carries catch-up potential. Seasonality is a headwind (next-20-session mean -1.8%, 5 of 15 up), and implied vol at 36.9 versus RV20 34.9% shows options still price event risk. A daily close below 57.035 negates the base and targets 56.36; above 58.4 opens 59.09.