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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

VX=F Deep Dive | Neutral: 18.25 settle pinned mid-range, 18.017 pivot is the line | 2026-10-22

We are Neutral on the VIX futures continuous contract (VX=F), with the call flipping to bearish on a daily close below 18.017 (next-session S1) and to bullish only above 18.567 (next-session R1). The prior session settled at 18.25 [settle 2026-10-21], flat on the day (settle), up 0.83% over five sessions and 3.4% over twenty (settle), leaving price at the 42nd percentile of the 17–19.95 twenty-day channel. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16) closed at 19.1 after a +12.02% w/w surge, but the current week is unfinished and has given back 4.45% from that print, so no weekly-close conclusion is drawn. ATR14 is 0.829, roughly 4.54% of price, meaning a full daily range of about 4.5 cents per 0.25 of VX; realized vol over twenty sessions is only 36.7% annualized, while the CBOE volatility index sits at 16.68, so equity optionality is not pricing a shock. The three-day retreat from 19.35 intraday highs has stalled inside the 18.017–18.567 pivot bracket, and the 18.25 settle sits almost exactly on the next-session pivot of 18.333. Without a break of either bracket edge, the path of least resistance is range consolidation between 18.017 support and 18.567 resistance, with 17.783 and 18.883 as the secondary targets. We would reassess on a sustained push through 18.567 with rising open interest, or a loss of 18.017 that carries price toward the 17.783 S2.