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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D Low Lost, 1237.67 Pivot Key | 2026-10-22

Bearish on soybeans (CBOT January ZSF27): the 2026-10-21 settle of 1245.25 broke below the prior 20-day low of 1245.5, confirming a fifth consecutive lower daily close and leaving price at the 10th percentile of the 20-day channel (1235.75–1327.75). The 20-day change of -5.52% (settle) is the dominant trend signal, with the 5-day at -2.51% and ATR14 at 17.75 (1.43% of price, full daily range) defining a normal session swing of roughly 18 points. The next-session pivot ladder (from the 2026-10-21 H/L/C) puts P at 1243.33, S1 at 1237.67 and S2 at 1230.08; the 20-day low of 1235.75 sits between S1 and S2, making 1237.67 the first real support test. Fundamentals offer no offset: the US crush margin of 2.5292 USD/bu (2026-10-20) is only at the 58th 1-year percentile, and the curve is in contango (M1-M2 -15.25, -1.21%) with a -7.24% roll yield, so longs pay carry. Seasonality (mean +1.43% over the next 20 sessions, 10 of 15 years up) is the only counterweight and is a small-sample context, not a thesis. Invalidation: a daily close back above the next-session R1 of 1250.92, which would reclaim the broken 1245.5 zone and neutralize the breakdown.