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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 642.5 Break, 618.25 Next | 2026-10-22

Bearish CBOT December wheat (ZWZ26): the 2026-10-21 settle at 628.25 broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 642.5, confirming a fresh leg lower in a market already down 6.68% over five sessions and 11.33% over twenty. The 20-day channel spans 621–712.5 with price at the 8th percentile, and the 2026-10-21 session printed a new 20-day low of 621 before settling near the top of its own range — a bounce, not a reversal. ATR14 of 16.18 (2.58% of price) argues for wide stops and staged targets, with realized volatility at 20.7% keeping optionality inexpensive. Fundamentals remain a supply-heavy backdrop: the curve sits in contango with M1-M2 at -15.25 (-2.32%) and a -9.26% roll yield, a structure that pays shorts to hold and penalizes longs on every roll. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -1.83%, median -3.38%, up only 4 of 15 years). The call is invalidated on a daily close back above 641 (next-session R1), which would reclaim the broken 642.5 zone and force a reassessment toward 649.25.