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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-21 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Short: 2.79 Settle Breaks 20-Day Low 2.912 | 2026-10-22

We are short natural gas (NGZ26.NYM): the 2026-10-21 settle at 2.79 broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 2.912, confirming a fresh leg lower in a market already down 12.76% over five sessions. The break came with a 5.84% single-day decline and an ATR14 of 0.1492 (5.35% of price), so the move is volatility-expansion selling, not drift. The 20-day channel sits at 2.766–3.395 with price at the 4th percentile of that range, and the NEXT pivot ladder (from the 2026-10-21 H/L/C) puts first support at 2.7027 and second at 2.6153. Managed money is net short at -7.26% of open interest, but the 37.72 crowding percentile shows positioning is not yet washed out, leaving room for further liquidation. The curve is in steep contango (M1-M2 -0.338, -10.24%), a negative roll yield of -122.87% that penalizes longs. Seasonality is the main counterargument: the next 20 sessions average +10.77% with 9 of 15 up years, so we size accordingly. Invalidation is a daily close back above the NEXT R1 at 2.9407.