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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-21 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D slide intact, 456.25 pivot is the line | 2026-10-22

Bearish on CBOT corn: the 20-day slide of -12.43% (settle 10-21) remains intact and the market sits at the bottom of its 20-day channel, with the 456.25 S1 pivot (NEXT ladder, from the 2026-10-21 H/L/C) as the invalidation level for a continuation toward 449.25. Three reasons: (1) momentum — five settled sessions show lower highs and lower lows, with the 10-21 settle 463.25 [10-21] at only the 13th percentile of the 20-day range 453.5–530.75; (2) structure — the term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14, -2.94%, RY -11.76%), a negative carry for longs that rewards short exposure; (3) seasonality — the next 20 sessions average -1.31% (median -1.96%, up only 6 of 15 years). The 10-21 session printed a long lower wick (low 453.5, settle 463.25), so a bounce attempt is possible, but a daily settle below 456.25 reopens the 449.25 target. Realized vol is compressed (RV20 22.8%, ATR14 10.23 ≈ 2.21% of price), so a break would be fast. No Asia print was available for this issue.