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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE.LG (LG2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: Broke Below Prior Low of 809, Weak Valuation and Inventory | 2026-10-23

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Log futures LG2701 continued to weaken in the first full trading week after the rollover, [10-22 settlement] at 805, [10-22 close] 802.5 has broken below the prior 20-day low of 809, down 3.25% over 5 days and 3.72% over 20 days, with price at the 1.4th percentile of the 20-day channel of 802–837, near the lower band. Fundamentally, inventory is high versus the same period over five years, delivery warrants are rising, and the basis is weakening; demand transmission from real estate and infrastructure is soft. Technically, ATR14 is 5.82 and RV20 is 6.5%, with mild volatility but a clear direction. In positioning, open interest in the main contract is 11,882 lots (+2,323); the decline came with rising open interest, indicating active short building. Operationally, try shorts near pivot P 805 on resistance; if S1 799.5 breaks, look to 794; the directional view is invalidated only if the daily close holds above R1 808.