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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Short: 20D low 6.509 broken, 6.3245 pivot is the line | 2026-10-23

Bearish: COMEX copper (HGZ26.CMX) settled at 6.398 on 2026-10-22, breaking below the prior 20-day low of 6.509 and confirming a downside break of the 20-day channel (6.381–6.797, position 4.1%). Three reasons for the short bias: first, the 2026-10-22 session was a wide-range distribution bar (H 6.5845, L 6.381, C 6.398, -2.76% settle) that closed near its low, with the 5D change at -2.42% and the 20D at -5.77%; second, managed-money net length has fallen from 82,522 (2026-09-22) to 61,058 (2026-10-13) while netPct dropped from 27.36% to 19.46%, showing trend-followers already cutting into weakness rather than defending the range; third, LME warehouse stock rose 11,475 MT (+4.91%) to 245,275 MT as of 2026-10-21, adding visible supply even as SHFE warrants fell. The invalidation is a daily close back above the NEXT pivot R1 at 6.528, which would reclaim the broken 20-day low zone; a daily close below NEXT S1 at 6.3245 opens the S2 target at 6.251. Asia trade on 2026-10-23 at 07:00 shows 6.4036 (+0.09% vs settle), a stabilization inside the break, not a reversal. ATR14 is 0.1296 (2.03% of price), so the 6.3245–6.251 leg is roughly 0.6×ATR beyond the pivot, and RV20 at 17.7% keeps realized vol contained. The call is bearish while price holds under 6.528.