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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Short: 5D -13.6%, below P 2.7867 | 2026-10-23

We are short NYMEX January natural gas (NGZ26) with invalidation on a daily close above pivot P 2.7867. The prior session settled at 2.796 [settle 2026-10-22], down 13.6% over five sessions and 17.03% over twenty, with the market trading at the 12th percentile of its 20-day channel (2.726–3.334). The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-12–10-16) closed at 3.116, down 3.23% w/w, and the current week has extended lower without closing. Managed money remains net short at -126,481 contracts (netPct -7.26%, 3-year crowding percentile 37.72), so positioning is not yet a squeeze risk. The curve is in steep contango (M1-M2 -0.392, -12.32%), a roll cost for longs. Seasonality is constructive (next 20 sessions mean +10.23%, up 10 of 15 years), which is the main risk to the short. A daily close above 2.7867 invalidates; a break below S1 2.7353 targets S2 2.6747. No Asia print was available for this issue.