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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Copper (CU2611) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: Breaks Below 20-Day Channel Lower Band on Rising Open Interest | 2026-10-23

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Shanghai Copper CU2611 settled at 108080 yuan/ton on [10-22 settlement], closing at 107590 yuan/ton (-1.33% vs. previous settlement), with 5-day -1.24% and 20-day -0.14%; it has moved close to the lower band of the 20-day channel at 107410–111770, with only a 4.1% position within the 20-day range; the night session (10-22 21:05 to 10-23 01:00) closed at 107120, down another 0.44% from the day session close, indicating continued short momentum. On drivers, LME inventory rose by +11475 tons (+4.91%) in a single day on [10-21], the international market HG=F fell -2.76% on [10-22 settlement] with 20-day -5.77%, and CFTC managed money net longs have been cut for two consecutive weeks ([10-13] 61058 lots, down significantly from [09-22] 82522 lots), showing synchronized weakness between international and Chinese markets. On structure, SHFE warrants fell to 23787 tons (-12.59%) on [10-22], Yangshan bill premiums rose to 143 USD/ton, and the China tax-adjusted premium was +1.37%, providing some support to the Chinese market; hence the call is bearish bias rather than outright short chasing. Invalidation conditions: daily close back above the next pivot P 107996.67 and a break above R1 108543.33, or HG=F moving above the next pivot P 6.4545.