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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

SHFE.FU (FU2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Rising on Increased Open Interest, Crack Spreads at Highs | 2026-10-23

Directional conclusion: Slightly bullish. Fuel oil FU2701 was quoted at 4812 yuan/ton on [10-22 settlement], closing that day at 4911 yuan/ton (+2.4% versus the previous settlement), with main-contract open interest at 240578 lots (+12790 lots), notional open interest at 11.81 billion yuan, up 628 million yuan on the day, showing a pattern of rising prices on increased open interest with active longs. Technically, the price sits at the 73.2% percentile of the past 20-day range (4057–5223), up 1.74% over 5 days and 9.43% over 20 days; ATR14 is 294.57 yuan/ton and RV20 reached 79.6%, indicating a significant rise in volatility. On the fundamentals, EIA crude inventories changed by -3060 thousand barrels week-on-week, -3.3% versus the five-year seasonal average; gasoline inventories were -5.0% versus the five-year seasonal average; distillate inventories were -9.0% versus the five-year seasonal average; U.S. refinery utilization was 93.4%; the Crack 3:2:1 spread was quoted at 58.89 USD/barrel; the oil-gold ratio stood at 0.0244, at the 99.21% 1Y percentile, reflecting relative strength in the energy complex. Invalidation condition: if the daily close breaks below 4729 (the next pivot S1) and the settlement price also fails to hold, the bullish structure is broken and the stance shifts to neutral/watch.