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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 55.007 settle broke 20-day low 55.56 | 2026-10-23

Bearish: the 2026-10-22 settle of 55.007 broke below the prior 20-day low of 55.56, and the call stays short while price holds under the NEXT pivot P at 55.881. Three reasons: first, the 20-day change is -14.05% with the settle sitting at the 4th percentile of the 20-day channel (54.53–65.505), i.e. a persistent downtrend, not a one-day air pocket. Second, the 2026-10-22 session was a true range expansion — a 3.575 handle versus ATR14 of 2.079 — with managed-money net length already cut from 13,309 to 5,619 contracts over four weeks, so selling is not yet crowded (netPct 5.18%, 3-year crowding percentile 33.74). Third, the gold/silver ratio at 73.82 sits in the 90th 1-year percentile, confirming silver is the laggard leg of the metals complex. Inventory draws (COMEX registered 103.33 Moz as of 2026-10-20, SHFE warrants 1,368,583 kg as of 2026-10-22) and a +1.7% rise in SLV holdings are the only offsets, and they have not arrested the slide. Invalidation: a daily close back above 55.881 (NEXT P) would neutralize the break; a move above R1 57.231 would flip the view. Downside, a break of the 20-day low 54.53 targets S1 53.656, then S2 52.306.