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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D -12.7%, channel floor 453.5 in play | 2026-10-23

We are bearish on corn (ZC=F, executing ZCZ26.CBT) with invalidation on a daily close back above 464.92 (NEXT R1). The prior session settled at 460.5 [settle 10-22], down 0.59% on the day, with the 5-day move at -3.66% and the 20-day move at -12.7% — a persistent, accelerating downtrend, not a one-day flush. Price sits in the bottom 9.3% of its 20-day channel (453.5–529), and the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-12–10-16) closed at 474.25, down 1.15% w/w; the current week is unfinished and offers no weekly-close conclusion. ATR14 is 10.23 (≈2.22% of price, full daily range) and RV20 is 22.8%, so realized volatility is elevated relative to the seasonal norm and daily swings of ±10 points are routine. The next-session pivot ladder (from the 2026-10-22 H/L/C) puts P at 462.08, R1 464.92, S1 457.67, S2 454.83 — the settle is already below P, a bearish configuration. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -1.45%, median -1.78%, up only 5 of 15 years). Term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14, -2.93%), a carry cost for longs. The 20-day low at 453.5 is the line in the sand; a daily close below it opens 449.25 (RETRO S2). No Asia print was captured for this issue.