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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Long: 20D channel floor holds, seasonal tailwind | 2026-10-23

We are LONG soybeans (CME January, ZSF27.CBT) with invalidation on a daily close below the 20-day channel floor of 1235.75. The market has absorbed a 4.9% 20-session decline (settle 10-22) and is now pinned at the bottom fifth of its 20-day range (position 19.9%), where the last three sessions printed a 1235.75 low and an immediate recovery to 1253. The 2026-10-22 bar was a genuine intraday reversal: 1242.25 low, 1260.5 high, 1253 settle (+0.62%), reclaiming the prior session's 1245.25 and the RETRO pivot 1243.33. Crush margins at 2.4668 USD/bu sit at the 84th percentile of three years, keeping processor demand bid, while the front-month roll is a -6.2% annualized carry cost longs must budget for. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is constructive (median +2.74%, 9 of 15 years up). The NEXT pivot ladder puts resistance at 1261.58 and 1270.17; a daily close below 1235.75 negates the call and targets 1230.08. No Asia print was captured for this issue, so all live observations are US-session intraday as of 2026-10-23.