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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: CBOT December Wheat ZWZ26 Below All Pivots | 2026-10-23

Bearish CBOT December wheat (ZWZ26): the 2026-10-22 settle of 624.75 sits below the next-session pivot P 625.75, with 5D -6.75% and 20D -11.63% (settle) confirming a steep downtrend and price at the 4th percentile of the 20-day 621–707 range. Three reasons: consecutive lower highs and lower lows into 624.75 with the 20-day low 621 the only nearby support; ATR14 16.05 (≈2.57% of price) means downside gaps can extend fast while seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -1.88%, median -2.42%, up only 4 of 15 years); a deep contango (M1-M2 -14.5, -2.26%, roll yield -9.02%) penalizes longs and signals ample nearby supply. Invalidation: a daily close above 630 (NEXT R1) would repair the structure and flip the call. Downside, a break below 620.5 (NEXT S1) targets 616.25 (NEXT S2), about 0.53×ATR beyond; below that, 608.25 (RETRO S2) opens. No Asia print was available for this issue, so intraday observations are labelled as of the stated time only.