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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-22 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 4060.4 settle broke 4091.2, short toward 3959.67 | 2026-10-23

Bearish COMEX December gold (GCZ26): the 2026-10-22 settle at 4060.4 broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 4091.2, confirming a lower-low structure after a five-session slide of -2.63% (5D, settle). Three reasons support the short: first, price action is one-way — the 10-22 bar spanned 4164.3 to 4036.8, a 127.5-point range that exceeded the full ATR14 of 70.26, and the NEXT pivot ladder now sits overhead with P at 4087.17 and R1 at 4137.53; second, positioning remains crowded on the long side, with managed-money net length at the 90th percentile of its three-year window as of 2026-10-13 even as net length fell for four consecutive weeks, leaving fuel for liquidation; third, the fundamental tape offers no bid — COMEX registered inventory is flat at 14.82 Moz and GLD holdings rose only +0.21% over 20 sessions, so the -5.53% 20-day decline is not being met with physical or ETF accumulation. Seasonality reinforces the downside: the next 20 sessions average -1.28% with only 4 of 15 years up. Invalidation is a daily close back above 4137.53 (NEXT R1); a break below 4010.03 (NEXT S1) targets 3959.67 (NEXT S2), roughly 1.4×ATR beyond. Asia trade on 2026-10-23 at 07:00 printed 4042.57, -0.44% versus settle, keeping the bearish structure intact.