📅 2026-10-07 · Algo brief · 19:00 ET (prev day)

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-07 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
Generated: 2026-10-07 07:01:00 · Benchmark settle: 2026-09-30
Body, Best Trade and charts share the same settlement snapshot; intraday live prices are not part of conclusions

2026-10-07 Overseas Market Tracking During National Day Holiday (Day 7 of Closure, Trading Resumes 10-08) | Post-Holiday Opening Plan

Day 7 of National Day closure: maximum implied gap is Crude Oil +5.54% (theoretical open 734.66). Includes post-holiday opening plan and position-handling rules.

# 2026-10-07 National Day Holiday International Market Tracker (Day 7 of Closure, Trading Resumes 10-08) | Post-Holiday Opening Playbook

Day 7 of the National Day closure · Last trading day before the holiday 2026-09-30 · Trading resumes 2026-10-08 (7 calendar days of closure). All figures below are settled data; benchmark = the most recent international market settlement prior to China's 09-30 close.

I. Cumulative International Market Moves Over the Holiday

Instrument	Benchmark	Latest	Cumulative	Holiday 1σ	Deviation
COMEX Gold	4179.7 (09-29)	4187.1 (10-06)	+0.18%	±2.4%	+0.1σ
COMEX Silver	61.15 (09-29)	61.59 (10-06)	+0.71%	±4.8%	+0.1σ
COMEX Copper	6.6 (09-29)	6.65 (10-06)	+0.7%	±3.6%	+0.2σ
LME Copper	14412.5 (09-29)	14408.5 (10-06)	-0.03%	±2.9%	+0.0σ
WTI Crude	89.38 (09-29)	89.44 (10-06)	+0.07%	±6.0%	+0.0σ
Brent Crude	96.16 (09-29)	101.59 (10-06)	+5.65%	±6.2%	+0.9σ
CBOT Soybeans	1297.8 (09-29)	1303 (10-06)	+0.4%	±2.7%	+0.2σ
CBOT Soybean Meal	359 (09-29)	354.8 (10-06)	-1.17%	±3.7%	-0.3σ
CBOT Soybean Oil	68.36 (09-29)	69.91 (10-06)	+2.27%	±2.7%	+0.8σ
SGX Iron Ore	94.4 (09-29)	91.4 (10-06)	-3.18%	±1.5%	-2.1σ
US Dollar Index	101.37 (09-29)	101.98 (10-06)	+0.6%	±0.8%	+0.8σ
USD/CNH	6.709	6.702 (10-07)	-0.11%	—	—

Beyond 1σ: SGX Iron Ore -3.18% (-2.1σ); LME Aluminum -2.16% (-1.0σ) — gap risk to be closely guarded on the first post-holiday session.

II. Theoretical China Open (Relative-Value Method)

Methodology: holding the pre-holiday international-vs-China premium unchanged, theoretical open = pre-holiday settlement × (1 + international market cumulative move) × (1 + FX change). SHFE Gold ≈ London Gold × USD/CNY ÷ 31.1; SHFE Copper vs LME 3M is net of 13% VAT; SC vs Brent; Soybean Meal vs CBOT Soybean Meal.

China Instrument	Pre-Holiday Settlement	Pre-Holiday Premium	International Cumulative	Theoretical Open	Implied Gap
INE.SC Crude Oil	696.1	+7.9%	+5.65%	734.66	+5.54% ⚠
DCE.I Iron Ore	704.5	+7%	-3.18%	681.38	-3.28%
SHFE.AL SHFE Aluminum	23900	-1.84%	-2.16%	23359.2	-2.26%
DCE.Y Soybean Oil	8934	—	+2.27%	9127.2	+2.16%
DCE.M Soybean Meal	3369	—	-1.17%	3326.1	-1.27%
SHFE.AG SHFE Silver	14928	+0.15%	+0.71%	15018.2	+0.6%
DCE.B Soybeans	4054	+16.26%	+0.4%	4065.9	+0.29%
SHFE.CU SHFE Copper	109570	+0.28%	-0.03%	109421.9	-0.14%
SHFE.AU SHFE Gold	905.04	+0.39%	+0.18%	905.71	+0.07%

III. Post-Holiday Opening Playbook (Before the 2026-10-08 Call Auction)

High gap risk: Crude Oil +5.54%. When the gap approaches the daily limit, the open may lock at the limit and stop-loss orders may not fill at the specified price.
Daily limits & margins: exchanges typically raise margins and daily limit bands ahead of the holiday, gradually restoring them after the close of the first post-holiday session; refer to official exchange notices for specifics.
Call auction: the theoretical open reflects only international relative value; China prices are also driven by post-holiday fund inflows, premium/discount and inventory changes — do not chase orders within the first 15 minutes of the open.

Pre-Holiday View Positions / Order Handling

Instrument	Direction	Status	Stop-Loss / Target	Theoretical Open	Action
SHFE.AU SHFE Gold	Short	Held @907	922 / 870	905.71	Hold, stop-loss unchanged
DCE.M Soybean Meal	Short	Held @3363	3420 / 3280	3326.1	Hold, stop-loss unchanged
SHFE.RB Rebar	Long	Held @3105	3075 / 3165	—	No international benchmark anchor; execute per pre-holiday plan, reassess 15 minutes after the open
SHFE.CU SHFE Copper	Long	Held @109850	108400 / 112300	109421.9	Hold, stop-loss unchanged

*This note is a holiday data tracker and does not constitute investment advice. Futures trading involves risk; please exercise caution when entering the market.*

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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