📅 2026-10-08 · Algo brief · 19:00 ET (prev day)

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
Generated: 2026-10-08 00:10:10 · Benchmark settle: 2026-09-30
Body, Best Trade and charts share the same settlement snapshot; intraday live prices are not part of conclusions

2026-10-08 China Futures Morning Report: Post-Holiday Divergence, Precious Metals and Black Series Weakness Continues

1) During the long holiday, international gold and silver fell overnight respectively, with continued weakness in the Asian early session; combined with divergent position directions on the previous settlement day for Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver, the rebound space for precious metals is limited. Shanghai gold, after losing [09-30 settlement] 903.47, looks to 892.62; only a regain above 914.47 would improve the outlook.
2) International crude oil fell overnight but rebounded in the Asian early session; China crude oil fell with reduced open interest on the previous settlement day, and post-holiday high volatility has not yet converged. INE.SC, if breaking below [09-30 settlement] 684.9, looks to 648; only a regain above 726.9 would turn it strong.
3) Most black series products are at the low end of the 20-day range, with hot-rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal weaker than rebar; warehouse receipts and open interest show insufficient demand recovery. Iron ore, after losing [09-30 settlement] 699.33, looks to 698; rebar rebounds that fail to exceed 3126 should still be viewed as range-bound and weak.

修订稿

This report has been revised to incorporate late-arriving data or corrections.

1. Core Views

During the long holiday, international overnight gold and silver weakened. GC=F settled at 4140.7 in [10-07 International Overnight], down 1.11%, while SI=F settled at 60.294, down 2.1%; in the Asian early session, they fell 0.2% and 0.42% versus settlement, respectively. Precious-metals sentiment transmitted downward, pressuring rebounds in SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver. SHFE Gold lost the [09-30 settlement] level of 903.47, opening a downside look toward 892.62; only a recovery above 914.47 would improve the tone.
International crude oil fell overnight before rebounding in the Asian early session. WTI settled at 88.28 in [10-07 International Overnight], down 1.3%, and rose 0.82% versus settlement in the Asian early session. China crude fell on an open interest cut in the prior settlement session; post-holiday, elevated volatility coexists with shrinking positioning. INE.SC broke below the [09-30 settlement] level of 684.9, opening a downside look toward 648; only a recovery above 726.9 would turn the trend strong.
Most black-metals contracts sit at the low end of their 20-day ranges, with Hot-Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, and Coking Coal underperforming Rebar. Iron Ore warrants stood at 0 lots as of [09-30], and the main contract rose on an open interest cut, reflecting short covering rather than a trend reversal in demand. Iron Ore lost the [09-30 settlement] level of 699.33, with a look toward 698; Rebar remains in a weak, range-bound tone unless rebounds exceed 3126.

2. Night Session & Overseas Recap

There was no China night session in the prior trading day; the following focuses solely on international market linkages. For precious metals, GC=F settled at 4140.7 in [10-07 International Overnight], down 1.11% versus the prior value, with an Asian early-session print of 4132.51, down 0.2% versus the overnight settlement. SI=F settled at 60.294, down 2.1%, with an Asian early-session print of 60.041, down 0.42% versus settlement. The synchronized pullback in international gold and silver pressures SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver at the post-holiday open; silver fell more, leaving the relative pattern of SHFE Silver underperforming SHFE Gold intact.

On the energy side, WTI settled at 88.28 in [10-07 International Overnight], down 1.3%, with an Asian early-session print of 89, up 0.82% versus settlement. Brent settled at 100.2, down 0.38%, with an Asian early-session print of 101, up 0.8% versus settlement. The Asian early-session recovery eased the overnight decline, but China INE.SC settled at 696.1 in [09-30 settlement], down 0.82%, with lower open interest; post-holiday, volatility amplification between international and China markets still warrants caution.

Copper and agricultural international markets were relatively calm. HG=F settled at 6.6495 in [10-07 International Overnight], with a change of 0%, and an Asian early-session print of 6.6421, down 0.11% versus settlement. ZS settled at 1297.5, down 0.42%.

3. Macro Landscape

During the National Day long holiday, China had no night-session trading; international price changes will transmit to the precious-metals, crude oil, and nonferrous sectors via post-holiday gaps. Priority attention goes to opening gaps in gold, silver, crude oil, and copper, as well as prior settlement-session pivot levels.

China CPI y/y is due at Beijing time [10-14 09:30]; the current expectation and prior value are not listed. It affects black metals, nonferrous metals, and chemicals; if the actual print deviates materially from the expected range, shifts in rate and demand expectations may amplify sector divergence. China PPI y/y is released simultaneously at Beijing time [10-14 09:30], also affecting black metals, nonferrous metals, and chemicals; focus on whether industrial-goods price transmission is improving.

4. Inventories, Warrants & Basis

As of [09-30], SHFE Copper warrants stood at 10,011 t, with a daily change of -721 t, or -6.72%; SHFE Aluminum warrants at 121,863 t, down 6,880 t, or -5.34%; SHFE Zinc warrants at 81,176 t, down 684 t, or -0.84%; SHFE Nickel warrants at 90,835 t, down 739 t, or -0.81%. Nonferrous warrants declined overall, marginally easing deliverable-inventory pressure on the spot side. However, after China tax-adjustment, SHFE Zinc's premium to LME was [09-30] -8.58%, leaving imports in a loss-proxy zone and onshore-offshore linkage relatively weak.

As of [09-30], SHFE Gold warrants stood at 116,028 kg, with a daily change of -3 kg; SHFE Silver warrants at 1,490,865 kg, up 30,504 kg, or +2.09%. Gold warrants were broadly stable, while silver warrants rose. Combined with SHFE Silver's tax-adjusted premium to SI=F of [09-30] +1.51%, spot-side supply pressure is more pronounced in silver than in gold.

As of [09-30], Hot-Rolled Coil warrants stood at 197,318 t, up 6,459 t, or +3.38%, while Rebar warrants stood at 87,653 t with a daily change of 0; inventory pressure in Hot-Rolled Coil exceeds that in Rebar. Iron Ore warrants stood at 0 lots as of [09-30], and Coke at 1,143 lots, down 48 lots, or -4.03%. Visible pressure at the warrant level is not high, but prices remain at the low end of 20-day ranges, with demand yet to show sustained confirmation.

As of [09-30], PTA warrants stood at 1,002 lots, Methanol at 5,720 lots, and Ethylene Glycol at 8,991 lots, all with daily changes of 0; Polypropylene warrants stood at 26,922 lots, down 32 lots, or -0.12%. Chemical warrant changes were limited; spot tightness depends more on post-holiday operating rates and the pace of downstream restocking.

5. Positioning & Fund Flows

As of [09-30], the top-20 seats in SHFE Gold held a net long of 156,552 lots, up 2,092 lots on the day; the settlement price rose 1.42% while main-contract open interest fell 229 lots, reflecting stronger net longs alongside shrinking total open interest, which cannot be simply defined as one-sided active accumulation. SHFE Silver held a net long of 54,175 lots, up 4,156 lots; the settlement price rose 0.5% and main-contract open interest rose 6,039 lots, indicating active long accumulation, though the overnight international pullback weakens post-holiday follow-through.

The top-20 seats in SHFE Copper held a net short of 16,103 lots, with net shorts up 1,705 lots on the day; the settlement price rose 0.35% and main-contract open interest rose 183 lots, leaving the balance of forces bearish but with price not yet broken. SHFE Aluminum held a net short of 10,346 lots, with net shorts up 6,805 lots; the settlement price fell 0.79% and main-contract open interest fell 7,189 lots, a decline on open interest cut. SHFE Zinc held a net long of 28,038 lots, down 352 lots; the settlement price fell 0.36% and main-contract open interest fell 7,062 lots, biased toward a decline on open interest cut.

In black metals, the top-20 seats in Rebar held a net long of 37,843 lots, up 12,783 lots; the settlement price rose 0.1% while main-contract open interest fell 18,678 lots, a rise on open interest cut. Iron Ore held a net short of 15,212 lots, with net shorts down 1,777 lots; the settlement price rose 0.14% and main-contract open interest fell 28,979 lots, a rise on open interest cut driven mainly by short covering. Coking Coal held a net long of 14,399 lots, down 5,173 lots; the settlement price fell 0.17% and main-contract open interest fell 16,244 lots, biased toward long liquidation.

In energy and chemicals, INE.SC main-contract notional open interest stood at RMB 17.76bn as of [09-30], down RMB 3.334bn on the day, with the settlement price down 0.82%, a decline on open interest cut. PTA notional open interest stood at RMB 32.04bn, down RMB 2.221bn, with the settlement price up 0.74%, a rise on open interest cut. Soda Ash notional open interest stood at RMB 22.49bn, down RMB 1.787bn, with the settlement price down 0.69%, a decline on open interest cut.

6. Technicals & Trade Strategy

Best Trade Today
Copper Continuous (SHFE.CU) Long · Entry 109900 (breakout trigger) · Stop-loss 108400 · Target 112330 · Risk/reward 1:1.6 · Horizon 1-5d · Conviction 5/10

Logic: SHFE Copper settled at 109570; follow through after a breakout above R1 at 109890, with the target set at the 20-day high of 112330. The 20-day change is still +0.42%, but beware post-holiday inventory builds and weaker international Asian early-session tone.
Invalidation: If international copper prices keep falling or post-holiday inventory builds widen, the breakout may fail; exit below 108400.

SHFE Gold settled at [09-30] 905.04, at the 21.2% position of the 20-day range of 892.62—977.26, down 2.69% over 5 days and down 5.14% over 20 days, with ATR14 at 15.07. If a short-term rebound fails to recover 914.47 effectively, treat it as weak range-bound trading; after a break below 903.47, watch 892.62. No actionable trade view is formed in this issue.

Rebar settled at [09-30] 3116, at the 25.3% position of the 20-day range of 3088—3183, down 0.06% over 5 days and down 1.95% over 20 days, with ATR14 at 27.79. Support lies at 3103 and 3088, with 3126 as rebound resistance; unless 3126 holds, the strategy favors selling rebounds and a range-biased bearish stance. Current conditions do not meet high risk/reward trade criteria.

INE.SC settled at [09-30] 696.1, at the 24.0% position of the 20-day range of 648—910, down 1.8% over 5 days and up 11.48% over 20 days, with ATR14 at 56.35. Post-holiday, focus on the breakout direction of 684.9 and 726.9. Crude oil rebounded in the Asian early session, but China previously fell on an open interest cut; do not chase in a high-volatility environment for now.

7. Inter-Commodity Spreads

CZCE PTA processing fee (screen value) as of [09-30] stood at 270 yuan/tonne CNY/t, +69 d/d, +88 over 5 days, 18th percentile over the past 120 days, in the low range; CZCE PTA settlement prices rose while main contract open interest declined, so the spread repair mostly reflects short covering, and industrial profit elasticity remains weak.

Rebar screen gross margin as of [09-30] stood at 1009 yuan/tonne CNY/t, -7 d/d, +20 over 5 days, 78th percentile over the past 120 days, in the historically high zone. This metric does not deduct processing, alloy, labor, or financing costs; it can only describe the relative screen position and cannot be equated directly with actual steel mill profits.

HRC-Rebar spread as of [09-30] stood at 162 yuan/tonne CNY/t, -9 d/d, -23 over 5 days, 1st percentile over the past 120 days, at the low end of the range, showing HRC markedly underperforming Rebar; rising HRC warehouse warrants also reinforce pressure on the flat-steel side.

Soybean-Palm spread as of [09-30] stood at -609 yuan/tonne CNY/t, +81 d/d, +274 over 5 days, 100th percentile over the past 120 days; the oil-meal ratio was 2.661, +0.019 d/d, +0.042 over 5 days, 12th percentile over the past 120 days. The data show Soybean Oil's relative strength versus Palm Oil has reached an extreme of the range, while the oil-meal ratio remains in a low percentile, indicating a clear divergence in relative strength within oils and meals.

8. Risk Factors

Pre-Holiday Position Risk: no China night session during the National Day holiday; if exchange margin and limit-up/limit-down adjustments are implemented, guard against post-holiday gaps driven by international moves in Gold, Crude Oil, Copper, and US Soybeans.
Precious Metals Risk: if GC=F breaks below [10-07 international overnight] 4132.11 again in the Asian early session, and SHFE Gold loses [09-30 settlement] 903.47 while SHFE Silver loses 14871, weakness could spread.
Crude Oil Risk: if INE.SC breaks below [09-30 settlement] 684.9 or WTI breaks below 88.28 again in the Asian early session, energy-sector volatility will amplify.
Black Series Risk: if Iron Ore breaks below [09-30 settlement] 699.33 and HRC breaks below 3266.67, lower-priced black-series products may continue to test the lower bound of the 20-day range.
Macro Risk: Beijing time [10-14 09:30] CPI and PPI prints materially outside the expected range could trigger synchronized moves across black series, nonferrous metals, and chemicals.

9. This Week's Watchlist

Beijing time 10-14 09:30: China CPI y/y; impacts black series, nonferrous metals, chemicals; focus on demand and price pass-through changes.
Beijing time 10-14 09:30: China PPI y/y; impacts black series, nonferrous metals, chemicals; focus on whether industrial-goods price pressure is easing.

Yesterday's View Review

SHFE.RB LONG entry 3105 stop 3075 target 3165 (1-2w, conv 6) → expired, closed P&L +0.35% exit 2026-09-30 | thesis: Rebar held above MA5, with the 20-day low of 3081 providing support; September manufacturing PMI was expected to rebound to 50.1, and if delivered, would drive restocking demand across the black series.
SHFE.CU LONG entry 109850 stop 108400 target 112300 (1-2w, conv 5) → expired, closed P&L -0.25% exit 2026-09-30 | thesis: SHFE Copper closed at 110130, with MA20 (109372) providing medium-term support and the 20-day high of 112330 as the upside target; RMB-denominated factors offered additional support to SHFE Copper.
SHFE.AG LONG entry 15494 stop 15004 target 16473 (1-2w, conv 5) → stop-loss P&L -2.65% exit 2026-09-28 | thesis: SHFE Silver closed at 15661, with S1 support near 15494; after the gold-silver ratio widened, silver was relatively undervalued, and if international precious metals stabilized, silver would have greater rebound elasticity.
Statistics (system-computed): 3 views · limit triggers 3/3 (100%) · average MFE +0.29R (n=3) · average MAE 0.65R (n=3) · realized -0.28R (n=3)

No trade candidates submitted today.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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