📅 2026-10-09 · Algo brief · 19:00 ET (prev day)

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-09 · Settlement: Exchange final daily settlement
Generated: 2026-10-09 07:00:33 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-08
Body, Best Trade and charts share the same settlement snapshot; intraday live prices are not part of conclusions

Commodities Pre-Open Brief — 2026-10-09

1) Oil surged 3.64% WTI and 4.07% Brent (settle), with the 3:2:1 crack at 69.72; watch Brent 106.54.
2) Gold gained 0.39% (settle) and Asia is +0.3%, but silver remains structurally weaker; watch gold 4175.77 and silver 58.489.
3) Nat gas fell 1.09% (settle) as contango widened; watch 3.0833–3.2753.

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1. WTI rose 3.64% to 91.49 and Brent rose 4.07% to 104.28 [settle 10-08], while the 3:2:1 crack spread reached 69.72, up 2.72 at the 94% one-year percentile; this keeps refined-product demand and supply-risk premia supportive for energy futures, with Brent R1 106.54 the level to watch.

2. Gold gained 0.39% to 4157 [settle 10-08] and traded at 4169.31, up 0.3% in early Asian trade, while the gold/silver ratio rose to 69.95 from 68.68 [settle 10-08]; the move signals silver lagging gold despite a modest metals rebound, with gold R1 4175.77 and silver S1 58.489 defining the near-term test.

3. Natural gas fell 1.09% to 3.168 [settle 10-08], while M1-M2 contango widened to -0.296 from -0.279; that softer prompt structure offsets the 20D gain of 6.38% and leaves the contract vulnerable if support gives way, with 3.0833 and 3.2753 the levels to watch.

2. Best Trade Today

No trade met the publication standard today (stop distance and reward-to-risk checks). Standing aside.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Bearish | driver: settle 4157, down 5.68% over 20D, with managed money net length 120,318 lots down 7,071 w/w as price fell 4.49%, aligned rather than divergent | key level: 4109.33 (S2) | invalidation: settle above 4194.53 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 59.424, down 8.48% over 20D; COMEX registered stocks rose 0.53 Moz to 102.82 Moz as of 2026-10-06, while managed money net length fell 5,695 lots w/w as price fell 8.08%, aligned rather than divergent | key level: 58.489 (S1) | invalidation: settle above 61.775 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 91.85, up 3.64% (settle), with backwardation widening to 0.97 from 0.83 and the 3:2:1 crack spread at 69.72, up 2.72 at the 94% one-year percentile | key level: 93.537 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 86.723 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 104.72, up 4.07% (settle), with the WTI–Brent spread at -12.79, down 0.87 at the 0% one-year percentile; Brent premium alone does not establish tighter calendar structure than WTI | key level: 106.54 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 98.49 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 3.168, down 1.09% (settle), while M1-M2 contango widened to -0.296 from -0.279 and managed money net short length reached -132,799 lots after a 67,252-lot w/w reduction | key level: 3.2753 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.3827 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Bearish | driver: settle 6.5685, down 1.22% (settle), with managed money net length at 78,058 lots after a 4,464-lot w/w reduction as price fell 3.4%, aligned rather than divergent; LME stocks fell 3,100 MT to 239,875 MT as of 2026-10-07 | key level: 6.4897 (S1) | invalidation: settle above 6.8418 (R2) | vs last issue: changed from Neutral because price weakened and the CFTC move remained aligned to the downside.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bearish | driver: settle 1287.5, down 3.36% over 20D and positioned at 23% of its 20D range, while contango widened to -17.25 from -16 | key level: 1276.5 (S2) | invalidation: settle above 1307.5 (R2) | vs last issue: new.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-08	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-09 08:00 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4157	+0.39%	-1.08%	4169.31	+0.30%
Silver	59.424	-1.44%	-2.86%	59.815	+0.66%
WTI Crude	91.85	+3.64%	-1.49%	91.17	-0.35%
Brent Crude	104.72	+4.07%	+1.93%	103.82	-0.44%
Natural Gas	3.168	-1.09%	+6.77%	3.135	-1.04%
Copper	6.5685	-1.22%	+0.47%	6.5666	-0.03%
Soybeans	1287.5	-0.77%	+0.27%	n/a	n/a
Corn	479.75	-0.35%	-0.40%	n/a	n/a
Wheat	671.00	-0.47%	+0.07%	n/a	n/a

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-08 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = report-date intraday observation from the supplied snapshot, not a settlement or a guaranteed 08:00 cutoff; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Cross-market spreads & ratios

Spread / ratio	Formula	Now (settle mm-dd)	Prior close	Day change	1Y pct	Reading
WTI–Brent spread	`CL − BZ`	-12.79 (10-08)	-11.92	-0.87	0%	negative = Brent premium over WTI
Gold/Silver ratio	`GC ÷ SI`	69.95 (10-08)	68.68	+1.28	75%	high/rising = silver lagging gold
Copper/Gold ratio	`HG ÷ GC × 1000`	1.58 (10-08)	1.61	-0.03	98%	high/rising = pro-growth / risk-on
Gold/oil ratio (bbl/oz)	`GC ÷ CL`	45.4 (10-08)	46.9	-1.5	5%	barrels of WTI one troy ounce of gold buys
3:2:1 crack spread	`(2×RB + HO) × 42 ÷ 3 − CL`	69.72 (10-08)	67.00	+2.72	94%	refiner margin per bbl of crude

_Computed from the same final settles as the table above; every leg of a row shares one settlement date (shown in brackets), otherwise the row is omitted. Prior close = previous common settlement date. 1Y pct = percentile over the last 252 sessions, same convention as the percentile table._

Early Asian trade is modestly firmer in gold at 4169.31, up 0.3% (Asia), and silver at 59.815, up 0.66% (Asia), while WTI at 91.17 is down 0.35% (Asia), Brent at 103.82 is down 0.44% (Asia), and natural gas at 3.135 is down 1.04% (Asia) versus their 2026-10-08 settles.

The cross-market picture remains oil-heavy: the WTI–Brent spread is -12.79 [settle 10-08], down 0.87, at the 0% one-year percentile; the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, up 1.28, at the 75% 1Y percentile; and the 3:2:1 crack spread is 69.72, up 2.72, at the 94% 1Y percentile.

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

GC=F SHORT entry 4090 stop 4180 target 3960 (1-5d, conv 6) → PENDING (entry not yet touched) | last settle 4157 | thesis: Gold's Asia bar at 4131.3 (-1.33% vs settle 4187.1) has broken S1 4141.07, the dollar is b
NG=F LONG entry 3.1883 stop 3.0463 target 3.395 (1-5d, conv 6) → OPEN (filled, running) | last settle 3.168 (unrealized -0.64%) | thesis: Natural gas settled up 2.86% (settle) and extended 2.19% (Asia), with the 20D position at
Stats (system-computed): 2 ideas · limit fill 1/1 (100%) · avg MFE +0.00R (n=1) · avg MAE 0.57R (n=1) · avg realized n/a

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve. As of [settle 10-08], WTI backwardation M1-M2 was 0.97, widening by 0.14 from 0.83; heating-oil backwardation widened to 0.164 from 0.155, while RBOB backwardation narrowed to 0.1582 from 0.196. Gold contango narrowed to -14 from -15.5, and copper contango narrowed to -0.0305 from -0.031. Natural-gas contango widened to -0.296 from -0.279, reinforcing a softer prompt signal despite the recent rally. Silver contango widened to -0.225 from -0.165 and soybean contango widened to -17.25 from -16. The curve view is bullish for crude and products, bearish for natural gas, and cautious for precious and industrial metals.

Inventories. Copper LME warehouse stocks fell 3,100 MT to 239,875 MT as of 2026-10-07; COMEX registered copper was unchanged at 471,400 short ton as of 2026-10-06, while SHFE warrants fell 2,325 MT to 7,686 MT as of 2026-10-08. Gold COMEX registered stocks fell 0.02 Moz to 15.07 Moz (468,730 kg) as of 2026-10-06, while silver COMEX registered stocks rose 0.53 Moz to 102.82 Moz (3,198,062 kg) as of 2026-10-06. Natural-gas structure, rather than inventory data, remains the clearer near-term signal; metals inventories are mixed, not a standalone directional case.

Positioning. CFTC data as of 2026-09-29 show gold managed-money net length at 120,318 lots, down 7,071 w/w, with price down 4.49%; the move is aligned, not divergent. Crude net length fell 22,236 to 79,592 as price fell 1.26%, also aligned. Copper net length fell 4,464 to 78,058 as price fell 3.4%, aligned. Natural gas net short length widened by 67,252 to -132,799 as price fell 3.4%, aligned. Silver net length fell 5,695 to 7,614 as price fell 8.08%, aligned. Gold positioning is crowded at the 92.51 three-year percentile, while natural gas and silver are depressed at the 10 and 26.92 five-year net-percentile readings respectively.

Vol. As of [settle 10-08], WTI IV was 48.4 versus RV20 38%, an IV premium of 10.4 volatility points; gold IV was 22.68 versus RV20 16.8%, a 5.9-point premium; and silver IV was 37.74 versus RV20 27.1%, a 10.6-point premium. Each market carries event premium rather than cheap optionality on this comparison, although implied-versus-realized spreads do not determine direction and can remain elevated during supply or macro shocks. Volatility favors defined-risk structures over outright leverage, with crude the strongest directional structure and gas the most unstable curve.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 — China CPI y/y — HG, CL, ZS — Consensus unavailable; surprise cannot be quantified.
BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 — China PPI y/y — HG, CL, ZS — Consensus unavailable; surprise cannot be quantified.

8. Risk Factors

Brent settlement above 106.54 would extend the upside breakout; a settlement below 98.49 would invalidate the bullish structure.
WTI settlement below 86.723 would break the stated bullish invalidation level, while the 3:2:1 crack spread at 69.72 and 94% one-year percentile leaves refining-margin reversal risk elevated.
Gold settlement above 4194.53 would invalidate the bearish view; silver settlement below 58.489 would reinforce precious-metals downside momentum.
Natural gas settlement above 3.3827 would invalidate the bearish view, while a break below 3.0833 would expose the lower end of the current technical range.
China CPI and PPI on BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 are the next scheduled macro catalysts for copper, crude and soybeans; consensus is unavailable, so surprise magnitude cannot be quantified.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

No trade setups were approved for publication today.

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