📅 2026-10-09 · Algo brief · 19:00 ET (prev day)

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-09 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
Generated: 2026-10-09 07:02:20 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-08
Body, Best Trade and charts share the same settlement snapshot; intraday live prices are not part of conclusions

2026-10-09 China Futures Morning Report: Energy & Chemicals Diverge Strongly, Black Series and Nonferrous Metals Under Pressure

1. International crude oil rose overnight; China crude oil settlement surged but gave back gains in the night session. Strength transmitted to chemicals, followed by high-level divergence. SC settled at 737.4; rebound resistance at 783.27, downside support at 716.87.
2. Iron ore fell on rising open interest; top-20 seats' net shorts expanded, with shorts actively transmitting to the black series. Settlement at 690.5; rebound capped by 693, below 682 look to 677.
3. International copper fell overnight; SHFE copper night session weaker than day session with main contract open interest rising, short-term longs under pressure. Settlement at 110740; below 109523 look to 106650, improvement only if back above 111193.

修订稿

This report has been revised to incorporate late-arriving data or corrections.

1. Core Views

1. International crude oil rose overnight and China's crude settlement price also climbed, but SC night session closed below the day session close; after strength initially transmitted to PTA, methanol and polypropylene, performance diverged. SC settled at 737.4 and closed the night session at 732.8; watch 783.27 on a rebound and 716.87 as support on a pullback.
2. Iron Ore settlement fell while main contract notional open interest rose, and net shorts among the top 20 seats widened; shorts actively transmitted pressure to Rebar and HRC. Iron Ore settled at 690.5; rebounds are capped at 693, and a break below 682 opens 677.
3. International copper settlement fell overnight, and SHFE Copper night session closed 1.22% below the day session close; the main contract rose on an open interest build but weakened in the night session, intensifying long-short tussle. SHFE Copper settled at 110740; a break below 109523 targets 106650, and only a move above 111193 would improve the picture.

2. Night Session & Overseas Recap

On precious metals, SHFE Gold night session closed at 894.38, up 0.14% versus the day session close and down 0.04% versus settlement; SHFE Silver night session closed at 14413, up 0.01% versus the day session close and down 1.21% versus settlement. Overseas gold settled at 4157 overnight, up 0.39%, and traded at 4169.31 in the Asian morning, up 0.3% versus settlement, providing marginal support to SHFE Gold; overseas silver settled at 59.424, down 1.44%, and traded at 59.815 in the Asian morning, up 0.66% versus settlement, though SHFE Silver remains in a weak range.

On base metals, SHFE Copper night session closed at 108910, down 1.22% versus the day session close; SHFE Aluminum closed at 23220, down 0.71%; SHFE Zinc closed at 25685, down 1.44%; SHFE Nickel closed at 118550, down 0.17%. Overseas copper settled at 6.5685 overnight, down 1.22%, and traded at 6.5666 in the Asian morning, down 0.03% versus settlement, with overseas weakness weighing on SHFE Copper; SHFE Aluminum and SHFE Zinc also weakened in the night session, with near-term pressure concentrated in aluminum and zinc.

On black metals, Rebar night session closed at 3071, up 0.33% versus the day session close; Hot-rolled Coil closed at 3241, down 0.03%; Iron Ore closed at 682.5, flat versus the day session close; Coke closed at 1954, up 0.05%; Coking Coal closed at 1477, up 0.07%. The night session failed to repair the day session settlement weakness, with Iron Ore closing down 1.16% versus settlement, and the black complex rebound remains constrained by spot demand expectations.

On energy and chemicals, SC night session closed at 732.8, down 3.39% versus the day session close; CZCE PTA closed at 6734, down 1.41%; PX closed at 9986, down 0.36%; Methanol closed at 3335, up 4.22%; MEG closed at 5324, down 1.75%; Polypropylene closed at 9311, up 0.75%. WTI settled at 91.49 overnight, up 3.64%, and traded at 91.17 in the Asian morning, down 0.35% versus settlement; Brent settled at 104.28, up 4.07%, and traded at 103.82 in the Asian morning, down 0.44% versus settlement, as crude spiked then faded overseas, leaving China SC weaker in the night session than in the day session.

On agricultural products, Soybean Meal night session closed at 3379, up 0.39% versus the day session close; Soybean Oil closed at 8932, up 0.29%; Palm Oil closed at 9620, up 1.17%. Overseas soybeans settled at 1287.5 overnight, down 0.77%, with oils outperforming meals in the night session and near-term flows biased toward the oils side.

3. Macro Landscape

Overseas crude rose overnight, lifting energy input costs, with China SC settlement up 8.96% versus the prior settlement, transmitting to the cost side of CZCE PTA, Methanol and Polypropylene; however, SC fell 3.39% in the night session, indicating that high volatility remains the dominant feature and the chemicals complex should not be chased on a single cost logic.

Overseas copper fell 1.22% overnight and continued to edge lower in the Asian morning, pressuring SHFE Copper down 1.65% versus settlement, as the near-term driver for the base metals complex shifts from China settlement strength to overseas risk transmission.

USD-related market sentiment indicators show USD sentiment at 25 and gold sentiment at 7.14, with divergence emerging within precious metals; overseas gold rose while overseas silver fell overnight, with China SHFE Gold relatively resilient and SHFE Silver settlement down 3.46%, shifting the precious metals trading focus to gold-silver relative strength.

4. Inventories, Warrants & Basis

As of [10-08 warrants], SHFE Copper warrants stood at 7,686t, down 2,325t or 23.22% versus [09-30 warrants]; over the same period SHFE Aluminum warrants stood at 118,396t, down 3,467t or 2.84%, with the warrant decline providing some support to spot circulation, but SHFE Copper's tax-adjusted implied premium at [10-08 ratio] 1.85% and SHFE Aluminum premium at 1.5% point to an import window tending to open, and overseas pullbacks will still constrain prices.

As of [10-08 warrants], Rebar warrants stood at 80,430t, down 7,223t or 8.24% versus [09-30 warrants]; Hot-rolled Coil warrants stood at 195,550t, down 1,768t or 0.9%. Rebar warrants fell more sharply, yet Rebar settlement still declined 1.77%, so the inventory improvement has not translated into price strength.

As of [10-08 warrants], crude warrants stood at 4,946,000 bbl, up 1,985,000 bbl or 67.04% versus [09-30 warrants]; SC's China tax-adjusted implied premium at [10-08 ratio] 8.52%, with high premium coexisting with rising warrants, the import window tending to open, and China prices more sensitive to overseas pullbacks.

As of [10-08 warrants], MEG warrants stood at 6,538 lots, down 2,453 lots or 27.28% versus [09-30 warrants]; CZCE PTA warrants stood at 1,002 lots, unchanged versus [09-30 warrants]. CZCE PTA processing fee at [10-08 spread] CNY266/t, down CNY4 on the day, at the 18th percentile over the past 120 days, with low market processing margins leaving CZCE PTA prices highly elastic to cost shocks.

As of [10-08 warrants], Soda Ash warrants stood at 3,300 lots, up 187 lots or 6.01% versus [09-30 warrants]; Glass warrants stood at 750 lots, unchanged versus [09-30 warrants]. The warrant structure shows Soda Ash spot pressure exceeding Glass, with Glass settlement down 3.23%, leaving the building materials chain still soft.

5. Positioning & Fund Flows

[10-08 positioning] SHFE Gold main contract open interest at 227,018 lots, up 1,427 lots on the day, with top-20 seats net long 156,700 lots, down 928 lots on the day; falling prices alongside rising nominal open interest correspond to an open interest build on declines, with short-side initiative strengthening. SHFE Silver main contract open interest at 294,766 lots, up 11,546 lots on the day, with top-20 seats net long 57,460 lots, up 2,762 lots on the day; falling prices with rising open interest show a more pronounced short-initiative profile.

SHFE Copper nominal open interest [10-08 positioning] at CNY106.85bn, up CNY4.641bn on the day; rising prices with rising open interest constitute an open interest build on gains, with longs in control; however, top-20 seats net short 16,967 lots, down 705 lots on the day, so after the night session turned weaker, watch for fading long momentum. SHFE Aluminum nominal open interest was not included in the fund-change ranking, with top-20 seats net short 16,528 lots, up 4,526 lots on the day in short advantage, and settlement declines with rising open interest skewing to short initiative.

On black metals, Iron Ore main contract nominal open interest [10-08 positioning] at CNY41.30bn, up CNY3.624bn on the day, with prices down 3.12%, constituting an open interest build on declines with shorts in control; top-20 seats net short 27,998 lots, up 14,849 lots on the day. Rebar nominal open interest at CNY51.63bn, up CNY2.89bn on the day, with settlement down 1.77%, an open interest build on declines; however, top-20 seats net long 38,227 lots, up 14,370 lots on the day, reflecting expanding net longs amid simultaneous long and short builds, with greater directional divergence than Iron Ore.

On chemicals, CZCE PTA nominal open interest [10-08 positioning] at CNY40.23bn, up CNY5.504bn on the day, constituting an open interest build on gains with longs in control, but a suspected roll makes open interest changes non-comparable; Methanol top-20 seats net long 133,653 lots, up 8,655 lots on the day, with settlement up 9.03% and rising open interest, confirming a clear long-initiative profile. Polypropylene nominal open interest at CNY29.89bn, up CNY2.798bn on the day, an open interest build on gains, but likewise suspected of rolling.

On oils, Palm Oil nominal open interest [10-08 positioning] at CNY54.60bn, up CNY2.593bn on the day, with settlement down 0.88%, constituting an open interest build on declines with shorts in control; top-20 seats net short 110,486 lots, down 8,959 lots on the day, with short covering coexisting with price weakness, reducing the reward-to-risk of trend shorting.

6. Technicals & Trade Strategy

Best Trade Today
No trade ideas met the warehouse intake standard today (stop-loss distance and reward-to-risk check); stay on the sidelines.

SC crude settlement [10-08 settlement] at 737.4, up 9.4% over 20 days, ATR14 at 57.51, night session close at 732.8. The bias remains high-volatility and firm but not to be chased; a break above 783.27 would confirm upside extension, while a break below 716.87 would shift to a pullback structure; settlement is near the pivot at 741.63, so no standardized trade view is offered at present.

7. Inter-Commodity Spreads

CZCE PTA processing fee at [10-08 spread] CNY266/t, down CNY4 on the day, up CNY84 over 5 days, at the 18th percentile over the past 120 days, in the low range, with market margins sensitive to feedstock shocks.

Rebar market gross margin at [10-08 spread] CNY993/t, down CNY16 on the day, up CNY3 over 5 days, at the 73rd percentile over the past 120 days; this metric excludes processing, alloy, labor and financing costs and is used only for historical relative-strength comparison, currently in the relatively high range.

HRC-Rebar spread at [10-08 spread] CNY181/t, up CNY19 on the day, down CNY7 over 5 days, at the 6th percentile over the past 120 days, with the HRC premium over Rebar at a low, and intra-steel relative strength favoring Rebar.

Soybean-Palm spread at [10-08 spread] CNY-603/t, up CNY6 on the day, up CNY193 over 5 days, at the 100th percentile over the past 120 days, with the spread at the top of its range; the oil-meal ratio at 2.646, down 0.015 on the day, up 0.025 over 5 days, at the 10th percentile over the past 120 days, with oils still cheap relative to meals.

8. Risk Factors

If the SC settlement price breaks below 716.87, the bullish crude call is invalidated; energy and chemicals exposure should be reduced on the long side.
If SHFE Copper reclaims 111193.33, the short-term downside view is invalidated; if it breaks below 109523.33, guard against an extension toward 106650.
If Iron Ore breaks below 682, the short target shifts to 677; if it holds above 693, the short-term downside pace slows.
PTA, PX, Methanol and Polypropylene are subject to contract rollover effects; day-over-day open interest changes are not directly comparable with regular trading sessions, so the weight on flow-following signals should be reduced.
The China tax-adjusted premium for crude stands at 8.52%, and warrants are up 67.04% versus [09-30 warrants]; if international markets keep sliding in the Asian morning session, the elevated SC premium in China could amplify the correction.

9. This Week's Watchlist

Beijing time Oct 14, 09:30: China CPI YoY — impacts ferrous, nonferrous and chemicals.
Beijing time Oct 14, 09:30: China PPI YoY — impacts ferrous, nonferrous and chemicals.

Yesterday's View Review

SHFE.CU LONG entry 109900 stop 108400 target 112330 (1-5d, conv 5) → pending trigger (entry not yet filled) | last settle 110740 | thesis: SHFE Copper settled at 109570; trend-following after breaking above R1 109890, targeting the 20-day high of 112330; the 20-day trend is still up 0.42%, but watch for post-holiday inventory build and weakness in international markets during the Asian morning session.
SHFE.RB LONG entry 3103 stop 3075 target 3165 (1-2w, conv 6) → stop-loss P&L -0.68% exit 2026-10-08 | thesis: Rebar settled at 3116; top-20 seats saw net longs rise 12,783 lots day-over-day (both longs and shorts cut, with shorts cutting more), go long on a pullback toward S1 3103, target 3165.
Statistics (system-calculated): 2 views · limit triggers 1/1 (100%) · average MFE +0.11R (n=1) · average MAE 0.75R (n=1) · realized -1.00R (n=1)

No trade candidates submitted today.

No trade setups cleared for publication today.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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