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Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
中金所 上证50股指主力连续(CFFEX.IH)深度分析报告 | 2026-10-08
方向结论:偏多(反弹修复),但仅为超跌后的战术性做多,非趋势反转。核心理由:一是价格已跌至20日通道下沿附近,20日位置仅16.1%,5日跌3.08%、20日跌5.12%,短期超卖明显;二是主力持仓67996手减少1131手,属减仓下跌,空头回补动能正在积累;三是美元指数101.85回落0.32%、美债收益率5.269下行0.79%,外部流动性压力边际缓和,利于权重蓝筹估值修复。方向失效条件:若IH结算价有效跌破2746(20日低点)并伴随主力持仓增加,则超跌反弹逻辑证伪,转为偏空。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
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