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Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
CZCE.PR(瓶片)深度分析报告 | 2026-10-08 偏多但需防节后跳空 | 2026-10-08
方向结论:偏多。瓶片主力合约(连续合约映射为CZCE.PR,实际执行合约为瓶片2611)在9月30日结算价8148元/吨,5日累计上涨1.67%,20日累计上涨7.17%,价格位于20日通道55.5%分位,ATR14为282.43元(3.42%),RV20为32.6%,技术面呈现温和上行结构。核心驱动有三:一是20日涨幅显著且5日延续,价格站稳枢轴P(8180.67)下方但接近R1(8377.33),多头主动增仓迹象需结合持仓变化验证;二是主力持仓39594手,较前值减少3259手,减仓上涨需警惕空头回补主导而非新多入场;三是宏观层面美元指数101.85走弱、美债收益率5.269下行,对化工品估值形成边际支撑。方向失效条件:若瓶片2611结算价有效跌破S1(8059.33)且伴随持仓增加,则偏多逻辑失效,转为中性观望。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
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