本报告来源： MacroTerms.com

数据截止: 2026-10-06 · 结算口径: 交易所最终日结算价

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Constructive Above 98.01, 105.07 the Gate | 2026-10-08

Call: LONG Brent crude, invalidation on a settle below pivot S1 98.01. Three reasons: (1) price structure — settle 100.58 [2026-10-06] sits above pivot P 99.65 and S1 98.01, with the 20-day channel 93.68–105.07 at 60.6% position and the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) closing at 102.25, +4.94% w/w; (2) product tightness — EIA distillate stocks 105,180 kb are 13.5% below the 5-year same-week average and gasoline 7.4% below, with refinery utilisation at 92.5%, so crude draws remain the marginal barrel; (3) positioning and vol are not stretched — OVX 48.79 sits at the 43rd percentile of its 1-year range against RV20 39.8%, so optionality is not expensive. The offset is a crude stock build of 922 kb w/w (4-week +2,860 kb, +1.9% vs the 5-year average) and a seasonality window that has averaged −2.23% over the next 20 sessions. Base case (55%) holds 98–105 and grinds toward 103.87; bull (25%) breaks 105.07 on a China CPI/PPI surprise; bear (20%) loses 98.01 and opens 95.43.