本报告来源： MacroTerms.com

数据截止: 2026-10-06 · 结算口径: 交易所最终日结算价

XAG=F (XAG=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Bearish: 20-Day Channel Floor at Risk | 2026-10-08

Call: Bearish XAG=F (COMEX silver continuous), invalidated on a settle above the 20-day high at 68.299. Silver settled at 61.325 on 2026-10-06, down 6.7% over 20 sessions and sitting in the bottom 19.2% of its 20-day 59.667–68.299 channel, with the last completed weekly bar (28 Sep–2 Oct) closing at 60.343, down 6.15% w/w. The report-date Asia bar last printed 59.901, down 2.32% versus that settle, already probing the 20-day low. Three drivers anchor the bear case: (1) price is trading below the pivot P 61.142 with R1 62.03 and R2 62.735 stacked overhead, so rallies are supply; (2) ATR14 of 2.141 (3.49% of price) and RV20 of 39.9% mean the 59.667 floor can be reached in a single normal session; (3) silver implied vol at 37.19 sits above gold's 22.97 (14th percentile), so the options market is charging up for downside event risk rather than signalling capitulation. A close back above 62.735 would neutralise the call; a settle above 68.299 invalidates it outright.