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Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
DCE.FB(DCE.FB)深度分析报告 | 2026-10-08 偏多但动能受限 | 2026-10-08
方向结论:偏多(谨慎),核心逻辑是低库存与节后补库预期支撑现货,但盘面量能萎缩、资金参与度极低,上行空间受制于20日通道上沿。上一根已确认结算(2026-09-30)纤维板主力合约结算1275元/立方米,5日+0.28%、20日+0.47%,ATR14仅12.82(1.01%),RV20 4.8%,价格位于20日通道1243–1284的78%分位,枢轴P 1275.5,R1 1278.5,S1 1272,主力持仓7849手(+216)。低波动、低持仓、低成交的“三低”格局下,趋势性驱动不足。方向失效条件:若结算价有效跌破S1 1272并伴随持仓增加,则偏多逻辑失效,转为中性观望。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
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