📅 2026-10-08
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Coke · Single-name brief
This report is provided by MacroTerms.com
Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
焦炭(DCE.J)深度分析报告 | 2026-10-08 空头回补驱动反弹 上方2276承压 | 2026-10-08
方向结论：偏空。焦炭主力合约（DCE.J，实际执行合约以交易所连续合约映射为准）9月30日结算1956.5元/吨，20日累计下跌11.06%，处于20日通道1923–2276的10.1%低分位，趋势结构仍为空头排列。核心理由：一是主力持仓46125手单日减少2796手、名义持仓日变-5.48亿元，价格+0.56%的上涨属减仓上涨即空头回补，缺乏多头主动增仓确认；二是前20席位净多4592手但多空双减（多头-1822、空头-1903），资金整体离场而非入场；三是季节性统计近15年同日起20个交易日中位仅+0.48%、上涨9/15年，胜率与幅度均不构成趋势性做多依据。方向失效条件：若结算价有效站上20日通道上沿2276或连续两日收于枢轴R1 1976.67上方且伴随主力持仓增加，则空头逻辑失效，转为中性观望。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
🇺🇸English original - AI-generated research (not machine translation)
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