📅 2026-10-08
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Soymeal · Single-name brief
This report is provided by MacroTerms.com
Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
豆粕(DCE.M)深度分析报告 | 2026-10-08 偏空：减仓反弹遇季节性逆风 | 2026-10-08
方向结论：偏空。核心理由有三：其一，DCE.M 豆粕主力合约（M2701）9月30日结算3369元/吨，虽当日对昨结+0.75%，但5日-1.29%、20日-0.15%，20日通道位置仅25.7%，反弹属弱势区间内的修复；其二，主力持仓2445036手、日减45676手，名义持仓824.5亿元、日减15.4亿元，减仓上涨定性为空头回补而非多头主动增仓，缺乏增量资金承接；其三，近15年同日起20个交易日季节性中位数-1.52%、上涨仅6/15年，叠加美豆压榨利润分位53.17%的中性偏弱背景，向上驱动不足。方向失效条件：若M2701结算价有效站上20日通道上沿3502元/吨，或国际市场ZM=F连续两日收于376.9美分/蒲式耳上方，则空头逻辑作废，转为观望。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
🇺🇸English original - AI-generated research (not machine translation)
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