📅 2026-10-08
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HRC · Single-name brief
This report is provided by MacroTerms.com
Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
上期所 热卷主力连续（SHFE.HC）深度分析报告｜偏空 | 2026-10-08
结论：偏空。热卷M2701（连续映射执行合约）在9月30日结算3282元/吨，20日累计-3.36%，20日通道位置仅2.9%，价格贴近3270下沿；主力持仓1366026手（-13292），名义持仓447.2亿元、日减4.35亿元，呈减仓下跌（多头离场）结构；前20席位多头减47209手、空头减47867手，净多仅+658手，多头撤退更坚决。基本面缺乏向上驱动，季节性近12年同日起20个交易日中位-0.91%、胜率仅3/12。方向失效条件：若M2701结算价逼近枢轴P 3280.33并有效突破R1 3287.67（需连续两日结算站稳），或10月14日CPI/PPI显著超预期上行，则空头逻辑失效，转为中性观望。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
🇺🇸English original - AI-generated research (not machine translation)
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