1. Executive Summary
Gold settled at $2,763.10/oz on 2025-01-23, down 0.16% on the session but still within 3.3% of its 20-day high of $2,768.80, according to the price history in our dataset. The metal has gained 1.87% over five sessions and 5.77% over twenty sessions, and its channel position stands at 96.70% — near the top of its recent range. According to CFTC data for the week ended 2025-01-21, net managed-money length in gold rose by 20,247 contracts to 215,869, with gross longs at 226,964 against gross shorts of just 11,095. That is a heavily one-sided book.
Silver was the weakest performer in the precious complex, falling 1.81% to $30.6730/oz. The move pushed the gold/silver ratio to 90.08, a level that historically has coincided with defensive positioning in the metals complex. CFTC data shows silver net length essentially unchanged, down 122 contracts to 29,221.
Crude oil declined 1.09% to $74.62/bbl, extending its five-day loss to 6.77%. Brent fell 0.90% to $78.29/bbl. The WTI-Brent spread implied by the two settlements is approximately $3.67. Natural gas eased 0.38% to $3.9450/MMBtu after a 5.43% rally on 2025-01-22. Copper gained 0.66% to $4.2995/lb, and soybeans rose 0.90% to $1,065.50/bu.
The macro driver remains the real-rate and dollar complex. The 10-year TIPS real yield stands at 2.23%, the effective fed funds rate at 4.33%, and the dollar index at 108.05. The 10s/2s spread is +36bp. High-yield credit spreads at 2.61% indicate no acute liquidity stress, and VIX at 15.02 suggests contained equity volatility.
The primary risk factor for today is positioning. Gold's net length of 215,869 contracts against a 96.70% channel position leaves the market vulnerable to a long-liquidation episode, particularly if real yields push higher. Crude's 247,445-contract net length, up 11,203 week-on-week, carries similar risk. Data unavailable for the economic calendar, ETF holdings, and term structure.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at $2,763.10/oz on 2025-01-23, down 0.16% from the prior settlement of $2,767.60. The session opened at $2,760.00, printed a high of $2,765.00 and a low of $2,745.40, leaving an intraday range of roughly $19.60. The ATR reading is 26.3429, so realized range was below the average true range — a relatively contained session. Volume and open interest are Data unavailable in our dataset. The five-day change is +1.87% and the twenty-day change is +5.77%. The 20-day high is $2,768.80 and the 20-day low is $2,597.00, placing the close at 96.70% of the 20-day channel. The move follows a strong run: gold gained 1.31% on 2025-01-15, 1.25% on 2025-01-16, 0.39% on 2025-01-21 and 0.46% on 2025-01-22 before stalling today.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at $30.6730/oz, down 1.81% from $31.2390. The session opened at $30.4000, with a high of $30.6730 and a low of $30.4000. The ATR is 0.5561. Silver's five-day change is -2.06% and its twenty-day change is +2.63%. The 20-day high is $31.6750 and the 20-day low is $28.9400, giving a channel position of 63.40%. Silver's underperformance relative to gold on the day is the standout cross-metal signal, with the gold/silver ratio at 90.08.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI closed at $74.62/bbl, down 1.09% from $75.44. The session opened at $75.39, traded a high of $76.00 and a low of $74.14. ATR is 2.1971. The five-day change is -6.77% and the twenty-day change is +7.77%. The 20-day high is $80.77 and the 20-day low is $69.33, giving a channel position of 46.20% — mid-range. Brent closed at $78.29/bbl, down 0.90%, with a five-day change of -4.56% and a twenty-day change of +7.79%. The Brent channel position is 55.90%.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas closed at $3.9450/MMBtu, down 0.38% from $3.9600. The session opened at $4.0010, with a high of $4.0480 and a low of $3.8610. ATR is 0.3187. The five-day change is -3.38% and the twenty-day change is +7.90%. The 20-day high is $4.3690 and the 20-day low is $3.3300, giving a channel position of 59.20%. The prior session's 5.43% rally was not extended.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at $4.2995/lb, up 0.66% from $4.2715. The session opened at $4.2500, with a high of $4.2995 and a low of $4.2295. ATR is 0.0582. The five-day change is -1.38% and the twenty-day change is +6.87%. The 20-day high is $4.4120 and the 20-day low is $3.9745, giving a channel position of 74.30%. Copper was the strongest performer among the industrial metals in our dataset.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans closed at $1,065.50/bu, up 0.90% from $1,056.00. The session opened at $1,055.00, with a high of $1,076.25 and a low of $1,047.75. ATR is 20.3214. The five-day change is +2.18% and the twenty-day change is +9.90%. The 20-day high is $1,076.25 and the 20-day low is $966.00, giving a channel position of 90.20% — the highest among the agricultural contracts we track alongside lean hogs at 96.80% and corn at 90.10%.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration on 2025-01-23 remains restrictive for commodity beta. The 10-year TIPS real yield stands at 2.23%, a level that raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. The effective fed funds rate is 4.33%, and the 10-year nominal yield is 4.65%. The 10s/2s spread is +36bp, a positive but modest steepening that is consistent with a soft-landing rather than recession narrative.
The dollar index was quoted at 108.05. A firm dollar mechanically pressures dollar-denominated commodities, and the combination of a 108 handle on DXY with a 2.23% real yield is the single most important headwind in today's tape. The Federal Reserve's total balance sheet stood at $6,831,760 million as of 2025-01-22, reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening program. The overnight reverse repo facility stood at $132.031 billion as of 2025-01-23 — a relatively low level that indicates the system's excess-liquidity buffer has been substantially drawn down.
Inflation data show the unadjusted CPI index at 318.9610 as of 2025-01-01, and core PCE at 124.5870. The labor market remains tight by historical standards, with non-farm payrolls at 158,268 thousand and the unemployment rate at 4.00%. A 4.00% unemployment rate with a 4.33% policy rate implies a real policy rate of roughly 33bp on a headline basis, though the TIPS-implied real curve is considerably more restrictive at the long end.
Credit conditions are benign. The ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, our liquidity-crisis proxy, stands at 2.61% as of 2025-01-23. Spreads at this level are inconsistent with systemic stress and argue against a disorderly risk-off event in the near term. Equity risk sentiment is similarly calm, with VIX at 15.02. The S&P 500 futures contract (ES=F) was quoted at 6,152.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) at 22,038.25, both with percentage changes Data unavailable.
Taken together, the macro backdrop is one of contained volatility, positive but modest curve steepening, a strong dollar, and elevated real yields. That mix is historically a headwind for gold and a mixed signal for industrial metals, which benefit from growth but suffer from dollar strength. Data unavailable for DXY and Treasury percentage changes, and for any Fed, ECB, or BOJ policy updates in the last 48 hours.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the reporting week ended 2025-01-21, positioning across the commodity complex is notably long, with several markets showing crowded configurations.
Gold. Net non-commercial length rose by 20,247 contracts to 215,869. Gross longs stand at 226,964 and gross shorts at just 11,095, against total open interest of 571,387. The long-to-short ratio is approximately 20.5:1. This is an extremely one-sided book. The week-on-week increase of 20,247 contracts represents roughly 9.4% of the prior net position and is the largest absolute build among the markets we track. In our view this is a crowded long, and the asymmetry favors contrarian caution rather than fresh momentum buying.
Crude Oil. Net length rose by 11,203 contracts to 247,445. Gross longs are 285,606 and gross shorts 38,161, against open interest of 1,867,000. The long-to-short ratio is approximately 7.5:1. The net position is large in absolute terms and was built into a week in which WTI fell 6.77% over five sessions — a divergence between positioning and price that warrants attention.
Silver. Net length was essentially unchanged, down 122 contracts to 29,221. Gross longs are 48,244 and gross shorts 19,023, against open interest of 159,899. The long-to-short ratio is approximately 2.5:1 — far less stretched than gold. Silver's positioning is comparatively clean, which may explain part of its sharper downside move today: there is less of a cushion of stale length, but also less of a squeeze risk.
Natural Gas. Net length fell by 8,961 contracts to 47,899. Gross longs are 191,688 and gross shorts 143,789, against open interest of 1,601,438. The long-to-short ratio is approximately 1.3:1. This is the only market in our dataset to post a weekly reduction in net length, and the positioning is the least crowded of the group. The reduction is consistent with the 3.38% five-day decline in the contract.
Copper. Net length rose by 4,749 contracts to 19,314. Gross longs are 69,678 and gross shorts 50,364, against open interest of 217,298. The long-to-short ratio is approximately 1.4:1. Copper positioning is moderate and the weekly build is constructive without being extreme.
In aggregate, the data show a market that is long gold and crude in size, neutral-to-light in silver and natural gas, and moderately long copper. The contrarian signal is strongest in gold, where the 20.5:1 long-to-short ratio and the 96.70% channel position together argue for caution on fresh longs. Data unavailable for managed-money share of open interest, producer hedging ratios, and CTA proxy positioning.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for 2025-01-23 is Data unavailable in our dataset, so we cannot confirm specific scheduled releases. Based on the cadence of the data we do hold, the following are the key items on the desk's radar.
First, the EIA weekly petroleum status report covering the week ended 2025-01-17 showed crude inventories at 411,663 thousand barrels, a weekly change of -1,017 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories stood at 245,898 thousand barrels, up 2,332 thousand barrels week-on-week. Distillate inventories were 128,945 thousand barrels, down 3,070 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization was 85.90%. The crude draw and distillate draw are modestly supportive, while the gasoline build is a mild headwind for the refined complex. The 3-2-1 crack spread is quoted at 17.82.
Second, the positioning data released for the week ended 2025-01-21 will continue to be digested. The 20,247-contract build in gold net length and the 11,203-contract build in crude net length are the two headline numbers. Traders will be watching whether the price weakness on 2025-01-23 is the beginning of a positioning unwind.
Third, the macro tape. With the dollar index at 108.05, the 10-year yield at 4.65% and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.23%, the rates and FX complex remains the dominant intraday driver. Any further strength in the dollar would likely pressure the entire commodity complex, with gold and copper most exposed on a beta-adjusted basis.
Data unavailable for geopolitical developments in the last 48 hours and for any USDA reports scheduled today.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). The trend is unambiguously up on a multi-week view: the contract is +1.87% over five sessions and +5.77% over twenty sessions, and sits at 96.70% of its 20-day channel. The pivot is $2,757.83, with first resistance at $2,770.27 and first support at $2,750.67. ATR is 26.3429. The close of $2,763.10 is above the pivot, which keeps the intraday bias constructive, but the proximity to the 20-day high of $2,768.80 and the R1 of $2,770.27 defines a clear resistance band. A daily close above $2,770.27 would open the path toward the psychological $2,800 area; a close below $2,750.67 would signal a short-term trend break and put the 2025-01-16 low of $2,731.70 in play. Given the 96.70% channel position and the 20.5:1 long-to-short CFTC ratio, we would characterize the risk/reward on fresh longs as unfavorable. Our bias is to buy dips toward $2,731–$2,745 rather than chase strength above $2,770. RSI and MACD are Data unavailable.
Crude Oil (CL=F). The trend has turned corrective. WTI is -6.77% over five sessions despite being +7.77% over twenty sessions, and the channel position has fallen to 46.20% — mid-range. The pivot is $74.92, with R1 at $75.70 and S1 at $73.84. ATR is 2.1971. The close of $74.62 is below the pivot, a bearish intraday signal. The 20-day high is $80.77 and the 20-day low is $69.33. The market has given back roughly half of its January advance. A sustained break below S1 at $73.84 would target the $72.00–$72.50 area; a reclaim of the pivot at $74.92 would stabilize the tape. With net length at 247,445 contracts and built into a declining price, the risk of further long liquidation is material. Our bias is neutral-to-cautious; we would avoid fresh length until the market either reclaims $75.70 or tests $72.00 with evidence of positioning reduction. RSI and MACD are Data unavailable.
Copper (HG=F). Copper is the most constructive technical setup in the industrial complex. The contract is +6.87% over twenty sessions and closed at $4.2995, above the pivot of $4.2762 and just below R1 at $4.3229. ATR is 0.0582. The 20-day high is $4.4120 and the 20-day low is $3.9745, giving a channel position of 74.30%. The five-day change is -1.38%, so the market has consolidated rather than broken down. A close above R1 at $4.3229 would target the 20-day high at $4.4120. Support sits at S1 of $4.2529 and then the 2025-01-21 low of $4.2715. Our bias is to buy dips toward $4.25 while the pivot holds. RSI and MACD are Data unavailable.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The gold/silver ratio stands at 90.08, a level that reflects silver's underperformance on the day (-1.81% versus gold's -0.16%). A rising ratio is typically a defensive signal within the precious complex. The copper/gold ratio is 0.001556, and the oil/gold ratio is 0.0270. Both ratios are at levels that suggest the market is pricing more macro risk than growth risk.
The dollar index at 108.05 is the key cross-asset variable. A firm dollar is negatively correlated with dollar-denominated commodities, and today's tape is consistent with that relationship: gold, silver, crude and natural gas all fell while the dollar held firm. Copper and soybeans were the exceptions, gaining 0.66% and 0.90% respectively, which suggests idiosyncratic supply-demand factors are outweighing the macro headwind in those two markets.
The energy complex shows WTI at $74.62 and Brent at $78.29, an implied spread of approximately $3.67. The 3-2-1 crack spread is 17.82. Natural gas at $3.9450 is down 0.38% but remains +7.90% over twenty sessions. The heating oil contract (HO=F) at $2.4715 is down 0.51%, and RBOB gasoline (RB=F) at $2.0656 is up 0.38%.
The base metals basket is mixed. Copper gained 0.66%, while aluminum (ALI=F) at $2,634.50 fell 0.15% and zinc (ZNC=F) at $2,297.00 was unchanged. The copper/gold ratio of 0.001556 remains near the lower end of its recent range, consistent with a market that favors defensive over cyclical exposure.
In agriculture, soybeans at $1,065.50 (+0.90%), corn at $489.75 (+1.14%), soybean oil at $45.04 (+1.40%), soybean meal at $315.30 (-0.16%), wheat at $554.00 (unchanged), sugar at $18.69 (+2.92%), coffee at $343.95 (+0.61%), cocoa at $11,552 (-1.05%), cotton at $67.47 (+0.49%), live cattle at $201.10 (+0.52%) and lean hogs at $82.125 (+0.80%). The agricultural complex was broadly firmer, with sugar the standout gainer at +2.92%.
8. Risk Factors
Positioning unwind in gold. Net managed-money length of 215,869 contracts against gross shorts of only 11,095, with the contract at 96.70% of its 20-day channel, creates asymmetric downside risk. A break below $2,750.67 could trigger cascading long liquidation.
Dollar strength. The dollar index at 108.05, combined with a 2.23% 10-year TIPS real yield, is a persistent headwind. Further dollar appreciation would pressure the entire complex, with gold and copper most exposed.
Crude oil long liquidation. Net length of 247,445 contracts was built into a 6.77% five-day price decline. The divergence between positioning and price is a classic setup for a positioning-driven selloff.
Silver volatility. Silver's 1.81% decline and the gold/silver ratio at 90.08 indicate elevated relative volatility. Silver's ATR of 0.5561 on a $30.67 price is approximately 1.8% of notional, implying meaningful daily range risk.
Liquidity drain. The overnight reverse repo facility at $132.031 billion is low, and the Fed's balance sheet at $6,831,760 million continues to shrink under QT. A further drain could tighten financial conditions unexpectedly.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the next five trading days is Data unavailable in our dataset. Based on standard reporting cadences, the desk will be watching for the following categories of events.
Energy markets will focus on the next EIA weekly petroleum status report, following the week ended 2025-01-17 data showing a 1,017 thousand-barrel crude draw, a 2,332 thousand-barrel gasoline build, a 3,070 thousand-barrel distillate draw, and refinery utilization at 85.90%. Natural gas storage data will also be in focus given the contract's 7.90% twenty-day gain and the 8,961-contract reduction in net length.
Macro markets will watch for any Federal Reserve communication given the 4.33% effective fed funds rate and the 2.23% 10-year TIPS real yield. The 10s/2s spread at +36bp and the 4.00% unemployment rate will frame the soft-landing debate. High-yield spreads at 2.61% and VIX at 15.02 suggest markets are not pricing a near-term growth shock.
Agricultural markets will watch for USDA export sales and any South American weather developments, given soybeans at a 90.20% channel position, corn at 90.10%, and lean hogs at 96.80%.
OPEC+ communication is Data unavailable. Central bank policy updates are Data unavailable.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Closed $2,763.10, -0.16%. Pivot $2,757.83, R1 $2,770.27, S1 $2,750.67. Channel position 96.70%. CFTC net length +20,247 to 215,869. Bias: avoid chasing; buy dips toward $2,731–$2,745.
- Silver: Closed $30.6730, -1.81%. Pivot $30.5820, R1 $30.7640, S1 $30.4910. Gold/silver ratio 90.08. Bias: neutral, watch ratio for direction.
- Crude Oil: Closed $74.62, -1.09%. Pivot $74.92, R1 $75.70, S1 $73.84. Five-day -6.77%. CFTC net length +11,203 to 247,445. Bias: neutral-to-cautious; avoid fresh length below pivot.
- Natural Gas: Closed $3.9450, -0.38%. Pivot $3.9513, R1 $4.0416, S1 $3.8546. CFTC net length -8,961 to 47,899. Bias: range trade.
- Copper: Closed $4.2995, +0.66%. Pivot $4.2762, R1 $4.3229, S1 $4.2529. Bias: buy dips toward $4.25 while pivot holds.
- Soybeans: Closed $1,065.50, +0.90%. Pivot $1,063.17, R1 $1,078.58, S1 $1,050.08. Channel position 90.20%. Bias: constructive but extended.
- Macro watch: DXY 108.05, US10Y 4.65%, TIPS real yield 2.23%, VIX 15.02, HY spread 2.61%, 10s/2s +36bp.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.