1. Executive Summary
Commodities delivered a mixed but constructive session on 2025-01-28, with precious metals leading gains and natural gas suffering a sharp, outsized decline. Gold (GC=F) settled at $2,766.80/oz, up 1.07% on the day, recovering most of the prior session's 1.43% pullback and re-establishing itself near the upper end of its 20-day range (20-day high $2,792.00, 20-day low $2,597.00, channel position 87.10%). Silver (SI=F) outperformed, rising 1.56% to $30.7270/oz, though it remains down 1.87% over five sessions. The gold/silver ratio stood at 90.04, a level that historically has coincided with periods of elevated macro uncertainty.
In energy, crude oil (CL=F) gained 0.82% to close at $73.77/bbl, while Brent (BZ=F) rose 0.53% to $77.49/bbl. The WTI-Brent spread remains in contango territory for WTI relative to Brent, consistent with the 20-day performance divergence (CL +4.49% vs. BZ +4.48%). Natural gas (NG=F) was the clear outlier, collapsing 6.11% to $3.4710/MMBtu and extending its five-day decline to 7.59%. The move left natural gas at just 13.60% of its 20-day channel, a technically oversold condition.
Base metals were steadier: copper (HG=F) added 0.40% to $4.2205/lb, though it remains down 2.10% over five days. Soybeans (ZS=F) settled unchanged at 1045.00 cents/bushel, with the grain complex showing modest strength in wheat (ZW=F +1.82% to 545.25) and corn (ZC=F +0.67% to 485.25).
The macro driver remains the combination of a firm U.S. dollar (DXY 107.87), a 10-year nominal yield of 4.55%, and a 10-year TIPS real yield of 2.13%. The 2s10s spread at +0.36% and a high-yield credit spread of 2.66% suggest markets are pricing a soft-landing scenario rather than an imminent recession. The Fed's balance sheet stood at $6,831,760 million as of 2025-01-22, with overnight reverse repo at $112.76 billion.
The primary risk factor for today is the violent repricing in natural gas, which could spill over into broader energy sentiment, compounded by the largest weekly reduction in crude oil managed-money net length (-55,914 contracts) recorded in the latest CFTC report.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F): Gold closed at $2,766.80/oz, up 1.07% on the session. The metal opened at $2,738.00, printed a session low of $2,738.00, and rallied to a high of $2,766.80 — closing at the session high, a sign of strong intraday momentum. The move followed a 1.43% decline on 2025-01-27 that had taken gold to $2,737.50. Over the past five sessions gold is up 0.43%, and over 20 sessions it has gained 5.72%. The 20-day high stands at $2,792.00 and the 20-day low at $2,597.00, placing the close at 87.10% of the 20-day channel — a strong but not yet extreme reading. ATR is $28.8715.
Silver (SI=F): Silver outperformed gold, closing at $30.7270/oz for a gain of 1.56%. The metal opened at $30.365, traded as low as $30.365, and reached a high of $30.727 — again closing at the session high. Despite the daily gain, silver is down 1.87% over five sessions and up 3.61% over 20 sessions. The 20-day high is $31.6750 and the 20-day low $28.9400, placing the close at 65.30% of the channel. ATR is $0.5866. The gold/silver ratio at 90.04 remains elevated.
Crude Oil (CL=F): WTI crude settled at $73.77/bbl, up 0.82%. The contract opened at $73.15, traded a low of $72.93, and a high of $74.31. Over five sessions crude is down 2.79%, but over 20 sessions it is up 4.49%. The 20-day high is $80.77 and the 20-day low $70.12, placing the close at 34.30% of the channel — a mid-to-lower range position. ATR is $2.2321. Brent (BZ=F) closed at $77.49/bbl, up 0.53%, with a 20-day range of $73.76–$82.63 and a channel position of 42.10%.
Natural Gas (NG=F): Natural gas was the weakest performer, plunging 6.11% to $3.4710/MMBtu. The contract opened at $3.699, reached a high of $3.720, and collapsed to a low of $3.361. Over five sessions the decline is 7.59%, and over 20 sessions it is down 1.22%. The 20-day high is $4.3690 and the 20-day low $3.3300, placing the close at just 13.60% of the channel. ATR is $0.3177.
Copper (HG=F): Copper closed at $4.2205/lb, up 0.40%. The metal opened at $4.235, traded between $4.220 and $4.2465. Over five sessions copper is down 2.10%, but up 3.89% over 20 sessions. The 20-day high is $4.4120 and the 20-day low $3.9745, placing the close at 56.20% of the channel. ATR is $0.0567.
Soybeans (ZS=F): Soybeans settled unchanged at 1045.00 cents/bushel. The contract opened at 1042.75, traded a low of 1041.00 and a high of 1050.75. Over five sessions soybeans are down 2.08%, but up 6.63% over 20 sessions. The 20-day high is 1076.25 and the 20-day low 974.75, placing the close at 69.20% of the channel. ATR is 19.8571.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro backdrop on 2025-01-28 remains characterized by a firm U.S. dollar and elevated real rates, a combination that has historically acted as a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stood at 107.87, maintaining its recent strength. A stronger dollar mechanically raises the cost of commodities for non-dollar buyers, which can dampen demand.
U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year nominal yield (^TNX) at 4.5510% and the 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) at 2.13%. Real yields at this level represent a meaningful opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets such as gold, yet gold's 1.07% gain on the day suggests that other factors — likely safe-haven demand or inflation-hedging — are currently offsetting the real-rate headwind. The 2s10s spread (T10Y2Y) stands at +0.36%, indicating a positively sloped curve consistent with a soft-landing or no-recession baseline.
Credit markets are calm: the BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) is 2.66%, a tight level that signals limited stress in corporate credit and, by extension, a relatively benign liquidity environment. The VIX index at 16.41 corroborates this — equity market volatility is contained, and risk appetite appears stable.
On the policy front, the effective federal funds rate (FEDFUNDS) stands at 4.33% as of 2025-01-01. The Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) was $6,831,760 million as of 2025-01-22, reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening program. Overnight reverse repo (RRPONTSYD) stood at $112.76 billion on 2025-01-28, a level that indicates ample but not excessive liquidity in the financial system.
Inflation data shows the unadjusted CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 318.9610 as of 2025-01-01, while the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) — the Fed's preferred inflation anchor — is 124.5870. The labor market remains solid, with non-farm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,268 thousand and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.00%.
Equity futures were mixed: S&P 500 futures (ES=F) at 6097.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) at 21,581.75. The combination of contained VIX, tight credit spreads, and a positively sloped curve suggests markets are not pricing a near-term recession, which is broadly supportive for cyclical commodities but less so for defensive havens — though gold's gain today suggests some residual hedging demand.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report dated 2025-01-28, positioning across key commodities shows a broadly cautious tone, with net length reductions in four of the five tracked markets.
Gold: Managed-money net length stood at 210,540 contracts, comprising 227,871 long and 17,331 short positions. This represents a weekly reduction of 5,329 contracts. The long-to-short ratio is approximately 13.1:1, indicating that positioning remains heavily skewed toward longs — a potentially crowded trade. Open interest was 577,505 contracts. The modest weekly reduction suggests profit-taking rather than a wholesale repositioning.
Crude Oil: Net length was 191,531 contracts (240,582 long vs. 49,051 short), a sharp weekly decline of 55,914 contracts — the largest reduction among the tracked markets. Open interest stood at 1,782,462 contracts. This substantial liquidation of longs is consistent with the recent price weakness in crude (down 2.79% over five sessions) and suggests that momentum funds and CTAs may have reduced exposure.
Natural Gas: Net length was 52,641 contracts (188,602 long vs. 135,961 short), a weekly increase of 4,742 contracts. Open interest was 1,568,450 contracts. Notably, natural gas was the only market to see net length increase week-over-week, even as prices collapsed 6.11% on 2025-01-28 and 7.59% over five sessions. This divergence — rising net length into falling prices — could indicate either contrarian accumulation or a lag in positioning data relative to the price move.
Silver: Net length was 25,950 contracts (46,674 long vs. 20,724 short), a weekly decline of 3,271 contracts. Open interest was 165,135 contracts. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 2.25:1 is far less extreme than gold's, suggesting less crowded positioning.
Copper: Net length was 16,542 contracts (67,992 long vs. 51,450 short), a weekly decline of 2,772 contracts. Open interest was 234,867 contracts. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.32:1 indicates relatively balanced positioning.
From a contrarian perspective, gold's 13:1 long-to-short ratio and 87.10% channel position represent the most crowded setup, while copper's balanced positioning and mid-channel price (56.20%) offer a less consensus-driven profile. Crude oil's large weekly liquidation may have partially reset positioning, reducing the risk of a further cascade.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for 2025-01-28 shows no scheduled data releases in the provided dataset (economic_calendar is empty; the seven-day forward calendar is marked N/A). Market participants will therefore focus on several thematic developments.
First, the natural gas market's 6.11% collapse warrants close attention. With the contract closing at just 13.60% of its 20-day channel and ATR at $0.3177, the market is technically oversold. Any shift in weather forecasts or storage data could trigger a sharp mean-reversion rally. The EIA's latest weekly report (dated 2025-01-24) showed distillate inventories falling 4,994 thousand barrels to 123,951 thousand barrels, while crude inventories rose 3,463 thousand barrels to 415,126 thousand barrels and gasoline inventories rose 2,957 thousand barrels to 248,855 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization stood at 83.50%.
Second, the energy complex's internal divergence — crude up 0.82% while natural gas fell 6.11% — is notable. The crack spread (3-2-1) at $18.00 suggests refining margins remain healthy, which could support crude demand from refiners.
Third, the CFTC positioning data's release will continue to be digested. The 55,914-contract reduction in crude oil net length is the most significant positioning shift and may signal that the recent price recovery (20-day +4.49%) was driven more by short-covering than fresh long accumulation.
Geopolitical developments and any unscheduled inventory reports (EIA, USDA) would be the primary catalysts for intraday volatility. No headlines were available in the provided dataset for the past 48 hours.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F): Gold is in a clear uptrend on a 20-day basis (+5.72%), though the five-day performance is nearly flat (+0.43%). The close at $2,766.80 is above the pivot of $2,757.20 and approaching the first resistance level (R1) at $2,776.40. The first support level (S1) is $2,747.60. The 20-day channel position of 87.10% places gold in the upper quartile of its recent range, with the 20-day high at $2,792.00. ATR of $28.8715 implies a daily expected range of roughly $29. The trend structure suggests buying dips toward the pivot ($2,757) or S1 ($2,747.60) could be favored by momentum traders, while a sustained break above R1 ($2,776.40) would open the path toward the 20-day high at $2,792.00. However, the crowded CFTC positioning (13:1 long-to-short) warrants caution against chasing strength.
Crude Oil (CL=F): Crude is in a choppy range. The 20-day gain of 4.49% contrasts with a five-day decline of 2.79%, and the close at $73.77 is just above the pivot of $73.67. R1 is $74.41 and S1 is $73.03. The 20-day channel position of 34.30% places crude in the lower half of its range, with the 20-day high at $80.77 and low at $70.12. ATR of $2.2321 indicates elevated daily volatility. The large CFTC net-length reduction (-55,914) suggests that speculative froth has been reduced, which could set the stage for a more sustainable base. A hold above S1 ($73.03) would be constructive; a break below could target the 20-day low near $70.12. Selling rallies toward R1 ($74.41) may be favored while the market remains below the 20-day midpoint.
Copper (HG=F): Copper is range-bound. The 20-day gain of 3.89% is offset by a five-day decline of 2.10%, and the close at $4.2205 is below the pivot of $4.2290. R1 is $4.2380 and S1 is $4.2115. The 20-day channel position of 56.20% places copper near the middle of its range, with the 20-day high at $4.4120 and low at $3.9745. ATR of $0.0567 is relatively contained. The balanced CFTC positioning (1.32:1 long-to-short) suggests limited crowding. A break above R1 ($4.2380) could target the 20-day high, while a loss of S1 ($4.2115) would expose the lower range. Range-trading strategies may be appropriate given the lack of a clear directional trend.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset dashboard on 2025-01-28 reveals several important relationships. The gold/silver ratio stood at 90.04, a historically elevated reading that suggests silver remains undervalued relative to gold on a relative-value basis. The copper/gold ratio was 0.001525, a low reading that typically signals defensive market positioning and concerns about global growth. The oil/gold ratio was 0.0267, reflecting the relative underperformance of crude versus gold over the recent period.
The crack spread (3-2-1) at $18.00 indicates healthy refining margins, which supports crude oil demand from refiners and suggests that product markets (gasoline, distillates) are relatively tight. This is corroborated by the EIA data showing distillate inventories fell 4,994 thousand barrels in the latest week.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) at 107.87 remains a key cross-asset driver. A firm dollar typically pressures dollar-denominated commodities, yet gold's 1.07% gain and silver's 1.56% gain occurred despite this headwind, suggesting that precious metals are being driven by factors other than currency — likely safe-haven demand or inflation hedging. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.55% and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.13% represent the opportunity cost of holding gold; the fact that gold rose despite these elevated real yields is a notable bullish signal.
The VIX at 16.41 indicates contained equity market volatility, which is generally supportive of risk assets including industrial commodities. However, the low copper/gold ratio suggests that beneath the surface, markets remain cautious about global growth prospects.
Within the energy complex, the divergence between crude (+0.82%) and natural gas (-6.11%) is stark. The WTI-Brent spread remains narrow, with Brent at a premium of $3.72/bbl ($77.49 vs. $73.77), consistent with the typical quality and location differential.
8. Risk Factors
1. Natural Gas Volatility Spillover: Natural gas's 6.11% single-session decline and 7.59% five-day drop could spill over into broader energy sentiment, pressuring crude oil and refined products. The close at 13.60% of the 20-day channel signals extreme weakness.
2. Crowded Gold Positioning: CFTC data shows gold managed-money net length at 210,540 contracts with a 13:1 long-to-short ratio. Any macro shock that triggers long liquidation could amplify downside moves, particularly given the 87.10% channel position.
3. Crude Oil Positioning Reset: The 55,914-contract weekly reduction in crude net length, while reducing froth, also removes a source of support. If the liquidation continues, crude could test the 20-day low at $70.12.
4. Elevated Real Rates: The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.13% remains a structural headwind for precious metals. A further rise in real yields could cap gold and silver upside.
5. Dollar Strength: DXY at 107.87 poses a persistent headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. A break higher in the dollar could pressure the entire complex.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the next five trading days is marked as N/A in the provided dataset, indicating no scheduled data releases were available at the time of publication. Market participants should monitor for any unscheduled EIA inventory reports, USDA announcements, or OPEC+ communications.
Key themes to watch include the trajectory of the U.S. dollar (DXY 107.87) and real yields (DFII10 2.13%), both of which remain critical drivers for precious metals. The energy complex will be sensitive to any shifts in natural gas weather forecasts and crude oil demand signals, particularly given the recent positioning reset in crude (net length -55,914 contracts).
Base metals will continue to take cues from the copper/gold ratio (0.001525) and any developments in global growth expectations. The grain complex, with soybeans flat at 1045.00 and wheat up 1.82% to 545.25, will be watching for any USDA reports or export sales data.
Central bank policy remains in focus, with the effective fed funds rate at 4.33% and the Fed's balance sheet at $6,831,760 million. Any commentary from Fed officials could influence rate expectations and, by extension, commodity markets.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Closed at $2,766.80 (+1.07%), above pivot ($2,757.20). Watch R1 at $2,776.40 and S1 at $2,747.60. Crowded long positioning (13:1) warrants caution. Bias: buy dips toward pivot, but manage risk tightly.
- Silver: Closed at $30.7270 (+1.56%), above pivot ($30.6063). R1 at $30.8476, S1 at $30.4856. Gold/silver ratio at 90.04 suggests relative value. Bias: constructive while above S1.
- Crude Oil: Closed at $73.77 (+0.82%), just above pivot ($73.67). R1 at $74.41, S1 at $73.03. Large net-length reduction (-55,914) reduces froth. Bias: range-trade between S1 and R1; sell rallies toward R1.
- Natural Gas: Closed at $3.4710 (-6.11%), deeply oversold at 13.60% of 20-day channel. Pivot at $3.5173, R1 at $3.6736, S1 at $3.3146. Bias: avoid chasing weakness; watch for mean-reversion signals.
- Copper: Closed at $4.2205 (+0.40%), below pivot ($4.2290). R1 at $4.2380, S1 at $4.2115. Balanced positioning. Bias: range-trade; break above R1 targets 20-day high.
- Soybeans: Closed flat at 1045.00. Pivot at 1045.58, R1 at 1050.17, S1 at 1040.42. Bias: neutral; await catalyst.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.