1. Executive Summary
Natural gas was the dominant mover in the 2025-02-03 session, with NYMEX Henry Hub futures (NG=F) surging 10.12% to settle at $3.3520/MMBtu, a violent snapback following the 13.80% collapse on 2025-01-30 and the further 0.10% decline on 2025-01-31 that had taken the contract to $3.0440. The move lifted natural gas back above its daily pivot of $3.3297 and toward first resistance at $3.4294, though the contract remains 9.33% lower over the trailing five sessions and sits at only the 26.30% position of its 20-day range ($2.9900–$4.3690).
Precious metals continued their grind higher. Gold (GC=F) added 0.76% to close at $2,833.8999/oz, its highest settlement in the data set, and now sits at the 93.70% position of its 20-day range ($2,617.30–$2,848.3999). Silver (SI=F) rose 0.82% to $32.3920/oz, with a 5-day gain of 7.07% and a 20-day gain of 8.68%, placing it at the 86.90% range position. The gold/silver ratio stood at 87.49.
Energy was mixed but constructive at the headline level. WTI crude (CL=F) recovered 0.87% to $73.16/bbl after touching an intraday low of $72.05, while Brent (BZ=F) slipped 1.04% to $75.96/bbl. The WTI-Brent spread implied by the two settlements was approximately -$2.80. Copper (HG=F) gained 0.75% to $4.2940/lb, and soybeans (ZS=F) advanced 1.56% to $1,058.25/bu.
The macro driver remains the restrictive real-rate regime. According to the provided macro data, the 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) stood at 2.09% on 2025-02-03, the effective fed funds rate (FEDFUNDS) at 4.33%, and the 10y-2y Treasury spread (T10Y2Y) at +0.28%. The DXY index was 108.99 and the VIX 18.62. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) was 2.73%, a level that historically signals contained near-term liquidity stress.
The primary risk factor for today is positioning fragility in crude oil. CFTC data as of 2025-01-28 showed crude net length falling 55,914 contracts week-over-week to 191,531 — the largest weekly reduction in the provided COT set — even as prices stabilized. Gold net length also declined 5,329 contracts to 210,540, suggesting that the metal's rally is being driven by macro and official-sector demand rather than speculative momentum.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at $2,833.8999/oz on 2025-02-03, up 0.76% on the day. The session opened at $2,818.20, printed a high of $2,848.3999 and a low of $2,780.8999, an intraday range of $67.50. The close marked a fresh high for the period covered by the data set, extending the 5-day gain to 3.52% and the 20-day gain to 7.14%. The ATR reading of 32.0786 was the highest in the provided gold series, indicating expanding realized volatility. Volume and open interest for the session were not available in the data set. The move followed the 1.95% surge on 2025-01-30 to $2,823.00 and the modest 0.37% pullback on 2025-01-31 to $2,812.50, confirming that dip-buying remains active above the $2,800 handle.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at $32.3920/oz, up 0.82%. The contract traded between $31.63 and $32.46, opening at $32.145. The 5-day change of +7.07% and 20-day change of +8.68% confirm that silver has outperformed gold on a relative basis over both windows, though the gold/silver ratio of 87.49 remains historically elevated. The ATR of 0.6384 is near the top of the recent range, consistent with the 3.60% single-day advance on 2025-01-30.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI settled at $73.16/bbl, up 0.87%. The session range was wide: a high of $75.18 and a low of $72.05 against an open of $74.14, a $3.13 intraday swing. The 5-day change was essentially flat at -0.01%, while the 20-day change was -1.08%. The close left WTI at the 13.80% position of its 20-day range ($71.94–$80.77), indicating that despite the daily bounce, the contract remains near the bottom of its recent band. Brent (BZ=F) settled at $75.96/bbl, down 1.04%, with a 5-day change of -1.45% and a 20-day change of -0.72%, and a range position of just 12.10%.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas was the outlier, surging 10.12% to $3.3520/MMBtu. The contract opened at $3.23, traded a high of $3.407 and a low of $3.23, and settled near the upper end of the session range. The move followed a brutal sequence: -8.19% on 2025-01-27, -6.11% on 2025-01-28, +1.84% on 2025-01-29, -13.80% on 2025-01-30 and -0.10% on 2025-01-31. The 5-day change remains -9.33%, and the 20-day change is -0.06%, underscoring that the rally is a rebound within a deeply damaged short-term trend.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at $4.2940/lb, up 0.75%, with a session range of $4.2535–$4.3085. The 5-day change was +2.15% and the 20-day change +6.30%, placing copper at the 60.30% position of its 20-day range ($4.1150–$4.4120).
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans settled at $1,058.25/bu, up 1.56%, with a session range of $1,031.75–$1,060.25. The 5-day change was +1.27% and the 20-day change +7.87%, placing the contract at the 81.20% position of its 20-day range ($980.50–$1,076.25).
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration on 2025-02-03 remains one of restrictive policy and positive real rates. According to the provided macro data, the effective federal funds rate (FEDFUNDS) stood at 4.33% as of 2025-02-01, while the 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) was 2.09% on 2025-02-03. A real policy rate above 2% is historically a headwind for non-yielding assets, yet gold's 0.76% advance to $2,833.8999/oz and its 93.70% range position suggest that the traditional gold/real-yield relationship is being overridden by other demand channels — most plausibly official-sector accumulation and geopolitical hedging, though the data set does not provide a decomposition.
The nominal 10-year yield, proxied by ^TNX at 4.5430 on 2025-02-03, sits above the effective funds rate, and the 10y-2y spread (T10Y2Y) of +0.28% indicates a positively sloped curve consistent with a soft-landing or no-recession baseline. The DXY index at 108.99 remains firm, a configuration that would ordinarily cap dollar-denominated commodity upside; the fact that gold, silver, copper and soybeans all advanced despite a strong dollar suggests commodity-specific drivers are dominating the macro beta.
Inflation data show the unadjusted CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 319.6790 as of 2025-02-01 and core PCE (PCEPILFE) at 125.1450. The labor market remains tight by historical standards, with nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,310 thousand and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.20% as of 2025-02-01. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) of 2.73% signals no acute liquidity stress.
Fed balance sheet data show total assets (RESPPANWW) at $6,818,186 million as of 2025-01-29, and overnight reverse repo (RRPONTSYD) at $97.781 billion on 2025-02-03. The RRP level below $100 billion indicates that the excess-liquidity buffer has been substantially drained, a condition that historically amplifies sensitivity to funding-market shocks. Equity risk sentiment, proxied by ES=F at 6,022.25 and NQ=F at 21,405.00, and the VIX at 18.62, suggests a moderately risk-on but not complacent backdrop. No economic calendar entries were available for the session.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the reporting date 2025-01-28, positioning across the major commodity complexes showed broad de-risking in energy and precious metals, with natural gas the sole major addition.
Crude Oil. Managed-money net length fell 55,914 contracts week-over-week to 191,531, composed of 240,582 long and 49,051 short positions against total open interest of 1,782,462. The magnitude of the weekly reduction is the largest in the provided data set and represents a meaningful liquidation of the crowded long that had built through January. The short base of 49,051 remains modest relative to longs, implying that the reduction was driven by long liquidation rather than fresh short selling.
Gold. Net length declined 5,329 contracts to 210,540, with 227,871 longs against 17,331 shorts and open interest of 577,505. The short base is remarkably small — only 7.6% of longs — indicating that bearish speculative conviction is minimal. The modest weekly decline against a rising price suggests that the gold rally is not being driven by managed-money momentum.
Silver. Net length fell 3,271 contracts to 25,950, with 46,674 longs and 20,724 shorts against open interest of 165,135. The short-to-long ratio of 44.4% is far higher than in gold, indicating a more two-sided and contested market.
Natural Gas. Net length rose 4,742 contracts to 52,641, with 188,602 longs and 135,961 shorts against open interest of 1,568,450. The short base is large at 72.1% of longs, consistent with a market where producers and hedgers remain active sellers into rallies — a configuration that can fuel short-covering squeezes such as the 10.12% move on 2025-02-03.
Copper. Net length fell 2,772 contracts to 16,542, with 67,992 longs and 51,450 shorts against open interest of 234,867. The short-to-long ratio of 75.7% is the highest in the set, indicating a heavily hedged or contested copper market.
From a contrarian perspective, the crude oil liquidation of 55,914 contracts reduces the crowded-long risk that had been building, while the natural gas short base remains a potential source of upside convexity. Gold's minimal short base offers little fuel for a short squeeze but also signals limited speculative excess.
5. Today's Focus
No economic calendar entries were available in the provided data for 2025-02-03, and no headline feed was supplied for the prior 48 hours. Accordingly, the session's focus is dominated by price action and positioning rather than scheduled catalysts.
First, the sustainability of the natural gas rebound is the key question. The 10.12% advance to $3.3520 followed a 13.80% collapse on 2025-01-30, and the contract remains 9.33% lower over five sessions. With CFTC net length still positive at 52,641 but a short base of 135,961 contracts, the market is structurally prone to further short-covering rallies. Traders will watch whether the contract can hold above the $3.3297 pivot and challenge $3.4294 (R1).
Second, the crude oil recovery to $73.16/bbl must be assessed against the 55,914-contract reduction in managed-money net length. The EIA weekly data for the week ending 2025-01-31 showed crude inventories of 423,790 thousand barrels, a weekly build of 8,664 thousand barrels, with refinery utilization at 84.50%. Gasoline inventories rose 2,233 thousand barrels to 251,088 thousand, while distillate inventories fell 5,471 thousand barrels to 118,480 thousand. The crude build is a bearish input that the market absorbed on 2025-02-03.
Third, gold's push to a fresh high of $2,833.8999 with an ATR of 32.0786 warrants monitoring for follow-through, particularly given the strong dollar at 108.99 and the 2.09% real yield.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold is in a clear uptrend across the 5-day (+3.52%) and 20-day (+7.14%) windows, closing at $2,833.8999, above the daily pivot of $2,821.0666. The 20-day range is $2,617.30–$2,848.3999, and the close at the 93.70% position indicates the contract is pressing the top of its band. First resistance is R1 at $2,861.2333; first support is S1 at $2,793.7333, with the pivot at $2,821.0666. The ATR of 32.0786 is the highest in the series, implying daily swings of roughly $32. RSI and MACD values were not provided in the data set. Given the extended range position and elevated ATR, the tactical setup favors buying dips toward S1 rather than chasing strength into R1, with a break below S1 potentially opening the $2,780 area tested on 2025-02-03.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI is in a range-bound-to-lower trend, with the 5-day change at -0.01% and the 20-day change at -1.08%, and the close at only the 13.80% position of the 20-day range ($71.94–$80.77). The pivot is $73.4633, R1 is $74.8766 and S1 is $71.7466. The close of $73.16 is marginally below the pivot, a mildly bearish signal. The ATR of 2.1121 implies daily swings of roughly $2.11. The 2025-02-03 low of $72.05 is the key near-term support to watch; a sustained break below S1 at $71.7466 would confirm the lower-range bias, while a reclaim of the pivot would target R1 at $74.8766. The EIA crude build of 8,664 thousand barrels is a fundamental headwind.
Copper (HG=F). Copper is in a moderate uptrend, up 2.15% over five days and 6.30% over 20 days, closing at $4.2940, above the pivot of $4.2853 and at the 60.30% position of its 20-day range ($4.1150–$4.4120). R1 is $4.3171 and S1 is $4.2621, with an ATR of 0.0565. The setup is constructive but not extended; a hold above the pivot keeps R1 in play, while a loss of S1 would signal a return toward the mid-range.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset configuration on 2025-02-03 shows commodities advancing despite a firm dollar. The DXY index at 108.99 and the 10-year yield at 4.5400 (^TNX at 4.5430) represent a restrictive backdrop, yet gold (+0.76%), silver (+0.82%), copper (+0.75%) and soybeans (+1.56%) all closed higher. This decoupling suggests commodity-specific demand rather than a macro-dollar transmission channel.
The gold/silver ratio stood at 87.49, and the copper/gold ratio at 0.001515, while the oil/gold ratio was 0.0258. The crack spread (3-2-1) was 20.62, a level that supports refinery margins and is consistent with the 84.50% refinery utilization reported by the EIA for the week ending 2025-01-31. The distillate draw of 5,471 thousand barrels against a gasoline build of 2,233 thousand barrels explains the relative strength in heating oil (HO=F at 2.4631, -0.86%) versus RBOB gasoline (RB=F at 2.1177, +3.99%).
Within the energy complex, the WTI-Brent spread was approximately -$2.80 (CL at $73.16 vs BZ at $75.96), and the CL-NG ratio compressed sharply given natural gas's 10.12% surge. The VIX at 18.62 and equity futures (ES=F at 6,022.25, NQ=F at 21,405.00) indicate a stable risk backdrop that is not currently transmitting stress into commodities. The high-yield spread of 2.73% corroborates the absence of acute credit stress.
8. Risk Factors
1. Crude oil positioning fragility. The 55,914-contract weekly reduction in managed-money net length to 191,531, combined with an 8,664 thousand-barrel EIA crude build, leaves WTI vulnerable to further long liquidation below the $71.7466 S1 level.
2. Natural gas volatility. The 10.12% single-day rally follows a 13.80% single-day decline on 2025-01-30; with a short base of 135,961 contracts, further two-way squeezes are possible, and the 5-day change remains -9.33%.
3. Real-rate and dollar headwinds. A 2.09% 10-year TIPS real yield and a DXY of 108.99 remain structural headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities; a further dollar advance could cap the gold and copper rallies.
4. Extended precious-metals positioning. Gold at the 93.70% and silver at the 86.90% position of their 20-day ranges leaves both vulnerable to profit-taking, particularly with gold ATR at a series high of 32.0786.
5. Liquidity buffer depletion. Overnight reverse repo at $97.781 billion is below $100 billion, reducing the cushion against funding-market shocks.
9. Week Ahead
No economic calendar entries were provided for the next five trading days, so the week-ahead outlook is based on the data available as of 2025-02-03. Market participants will continue to monitor the EIA weekly inventory series, with the most recent report (week ending 2025-01-31) showing a crude build of 8,664 thousand barrels, a gasoline build of 2,233 thousand barrels and a distillate draw of 5,471 thousand barrels at 84.50% refinery utilization.
The next CFTC Commitments of Traders report, covering positions as of 2025-02-04, will be closely watched for whether the crude oil liquidation extends beyond the 55,914-contract reduction reported for 2025-01-28, and whether natural gas net length builds on the 4,742-contract weekly increase. Precious-metals positioning will be scrutinized for signs that the gold rally is attracting fresh managed-money length after the 5,329-contract decline.
On the macro side, the key variables remain the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.09%, the effective funds rate at 4.33%, the DXY at 108.99 and the 10y-2y spread at +0.28%. No OPEC+ or central bank meetings were indicated in the provided data. Scheduled data releases, if any, were not available in the economic calendar feed.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Natural gas (NG=F): +10.12% to $3.3520; rebound within a damaged 5-day trend (-9.33%). Watch $3.3297 pivot and $3.4294 R1; short base of 135,961 contracts is squeeze fuel.
- Gold (GC=F): +0.76% to $2,833.8999; 93.70% range position, ATR 32.0786. Buy dips toward $2,793.7333 S1; resistance $2,861.2333 R1.
- Silver (SI=F): +0.82% to $32.3920; 5-day +7.07%. Gold/silver ratio 87.49.
- Crude oil (CL=F): +0.87% to $73.16; below $73.4633 pivot, 13.80% range position. EIA crude build +8,664 thousand barrels; CFTC net length -55,914 to 191,531. Support $71.7466 S1.
- Copper (HG=F): +0.75% to $4.2940; above $4.2853 pivot, 60.30% range position. Resistance $4.3171 R1.
- Soybeans (ZS=F): +1.56% to $1,058.25; 81.20% range position.
- Macro: DXY 108.99, US10Y 4.5400, real yield 2.09%, VIX 18.62, HY spread 2.73%.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.