1. Executive Summary
Commodities delivered a bifurcated session on 2025-02-05, with precious and base metals plus natural gas advancing while the energy crude complex and agricultural softs retreated. Gold (GC=F) settled at 2871.6001, up 0.64% on the day, extending its 5-day gain to 3.70% and its 20-day gain to 8.09%. Copper (HG=F) was the strongest performer in the monitored basket, closing at 4.4345 for a gain of 2.12%, with a 5-day advance of 4.16% and a 20-day advance of 6.59%. Natural gas (NG=F) rebounded 3.29% to 3.3600, though it remains down 4.95% over five sessions. On the losing side, crude oil (CL=F) fell 2.30% to 71.0300, its 20-day decline reaching 4.34%, while soybeans (ZS=F) dropped 1.67% to 1057.0000. Silver (SI=F) was essentially flat at 32.8570, down 0.09%.
The key macro driver remains the restrictive real-rate environment. According to the provided macro data, the US 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) stood at 2.0100% on 2025-02-05, the federal funds effective rate (FEDFUNDS) was 4.3300%, and the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (T10Y2Y) was +0.2600%, indicating a positively sloped but shallow curve. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 2.6900% signals contained liquidity stress. The US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) was quoted at 107.5800, a level that continues to cap upside in dollar-denominated commodities.
Positioning data from the CFTC for the week ended 2025-02-04 reveals a notable divergence. Gold net longs stood at 209,533 contracts, down only 1,007 week-over-week, while crude oil net longs collapsed by 47,395 to 144,136 — the largest weekly reduction in the dataset. Silver net longs rose 10,297 to 36,247, and copper net longs increased 1,922 to 18,464.
The primary risk factor for today is the aggressive unwind of crude oil length against a still-firm dollar and soft refinery utilization of 84.50% reported by the EIA for the week ended 2025-01-31. Should the crude selloff extend, it could drag the broader energy complex and weigh on inflation-linked expectations.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at 2871.6001 on 2025-02-05, up 0.64% from the prior close of 2853.3. The session opened at 2850, printed a high of 2880.5 and a low of 2848, leaving the close near the top of the daily range. The 20-day high stands at 2880.5 and the 20-day low at 2653.5, placing the close at 96.10% of the 20-day channel — a technically stretched reading. The 5-day change is +3.70% and the 20-day change is +8.09%. Volume and open interest for the futures contract were not available in the provided dataset. The move extends a sequence of higher closes since 2025-01-27, when gold bottomed at 2737.5.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at 32.8570, down 0.09% from 32.888. The intraday range was narrow, with a high of 32.857 and a low of 32.635 against an open of 32.805. Despite the flat daily print, silver's 5-day change is +5.18% and its 20-day change is +7.92%, and the close sits at 98.90% of the 20-day channel (20-day high 32.888, 20-day low 30.091). The gold-silver ratio was 87.40 on 2025-02-05.
Crude Oil (CL=F). Crude oil was the weakest major contract, closing at 71.0300, down 2.30% from 72.7. The session opened at 72.76, reached a high of 72.97 and a low of 70.96, closing near the session low. The 5-day change is -2.19% and the 20-day change is -4.34%. The close sits at just 3.60% of the 20-day channel (20-day high 80.77, 20-day low 70.67), underscoring the severity of the recent decline. Brent (BZ=F) closed at 74.6100, down 2.09%, with a 20-day change of -3.17%.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas closed at 3.3600, up 3.29% from 3.253. The contract opened at 3.229, traded a high of 3.375 and a low of 3.161. Despite the daily bounce, the 5-day change is -4.95% and the 20-day change is -2.58%, reflecting the sharp 13.80% single-day decline recorded on 2025-01-30. The close is at 26.80% of the 20-day channel (20-day high 4.369, 20-day low 2.990).
Copper (HG=F). Copper was the standout, closing at 4.4345, up 2.12% from 4.3425. The session opened at 4.386 and printed a high of 4.436, essentially the close, with a low of 4.386. The 5-day change is +4.16% and the 20-day change is +6.59%. The close is at 99.40% of the 20-day channel (20-day high 4.436, 20-day low 4.190), a breakout posture.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans closed at 1057.0000, down 1.67% from 1075. The session opened at 1073.5, reached a high of 1079.75 and a low of 1053. The 5-day change is -0.33% and the 20-day change is +6.53%. The close is at 77.10% of the 20-day channel (20-day high 1079.75, 20-day low 980.5). Related complexes also softened: soybean meal (ZM=F) fell 1.82% to 308.30 and soybean oil (ZL=F) fell 1.46% to 45.09.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration on 2025-02-05 remains one of elevated nominal and real rates. The US 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) was 2.0100%, a level that historically competes with gold's non-yielding appeal, yet gold's advance to 2871.6001 suggests the market is prioritizing other drivers. The federal funds effective rate (FEDFUNDS) stood at 4.3300% as of 2025-02-01, unchanged in the provided data. The 10-year minus 2-year spread (T10Y2Y) at +0.2600% indicates the curve has normalized from inversion, consistent with a soft-landing narrative rather than imminent recession.
Inflation data show the unadjusted CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 319.6790 as of 2025-02-01, while the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) — the Fed's preferred inflation anchor — was 125.1450. Labor market data show total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,310 thousand and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.2000% as of 2025-02-01, a level that remains historically low but above cycle troughs.
Liquidity metrics are informative. The Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) was 6,810,935 million dollars as of 2025-02-05, reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening trajectory. The overnight reverse repo facility (RRPONTSYD) stood at 78.788 billion dollars, a relatively drained level that suggests excess liquidity buffers have been substantially reduced. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 2.6900% signals no acute liquidity crisis.
The US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) at 107.5800 remains a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. Equity futures were quoted with ES=F at 6086.50 and NQ=F at 21763.00, while the VIX index was 15.77, indicating contained risk aversion. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) was 4.4220%, and the cross-asset table lists the US 10-year yield at 4.4300%. The combination of a firm dollar, positive real yields, and low volatility is typically a challenging backdrop for commodity beta, yet metals are outperforming — a divergence worth monitoring.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the report date 2025-02-04, positioning across the monitored commodities showed meaningful dispersion.
Gold. Net non-commercial positioning was 209,533 contracts, comprising 240,485 longs against 30,952 shorts, with total open interest of 542,004. The weekly change was -1,007 contracts, a marginal reduction that leaves gold positioning near its recent highs. The long-to-short ratio of roughly 7.8:1 indicates a persistently crowded long. This is a contrarian caution flag, though the small weekly reduction suggests no aggressive liquidation.
Silver. Net positioning rose sharply by 10,297 contracts to 36,247, with 56,404 longs and 20,157 shorts against open interest of 170,726. The weekly build is the largest in the dataset and corroborates silver's strong 5-day price performance of +5.18%. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 2.8:1 is less extreme than gold's.
Crude Oil. Net positioning fell by 47,395 contracts to 144,136, the largest weekly decline in the provided dataset. Longs stood at 204,272 against 60,136 shorts, with open interest of 1,765,342. The magnitude of the unwind — roughly a quarter of the prior net length — is consistent with the price decline to 71.03 and the close at only 3.60% of the 20-day channel. This represents a significant de-risking event.
Natural Gas. Net positioning declined 3,974 to 48,667, with 183,986 longs and 135,319 shorts against open interest of 1,559,758. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.36:1 is the least crowded in the energy complex, and the short base remains substantial.
Copper. Net positioning increased 1,922 to 18,464, with 72,058 longs and 53,594 shorts against open interest of 235,599. The build aligns with copper's +2.12% daily and +6.59% 20-day performance. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.34:1 is moderate.
In aggregate, the data show a clear rotation: investors added to silver and copper while aggressively reducing crude oil exposure and holding gold steady. The crude unwind is the dominant signal and may represent either capitulation or the early stage of a larger repositioning.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar provided for the coming seven days is empty (“N/A”), so no scheduled data releases are available for 2025-02-05. Investors should nonetheless monitor the following.
First, the EIA weekly petroleum status report for the week ended 2025-01-31 showed crude inventory at 423,790 thousand barrels with a weekly build of 8,664 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventory was 251,088 thousand barrels, up 2,233 thousand barrels, while distillate inventory was 118,480 thousand barrels, down 5,471 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization was 84.50%. The crude build against a soft utilization rate is a bearish fundamental input that may have contributed to the 2.30% crude decline.
Second, the CFTC positioning data released for 2025-02-04 will continue to be digested, particularly the 47,395-contract reduction in crude oil net length. Follow-through selling or stabilization in the 70-71 area will be closely watched.
Third, the trajectory of the US Dollar Index at 107.5800 remains a key swing factor. Any softening in the dollar could provide relief to the crude and agricultural complexes, while further strength would reinforce the headwinds evident in soybeans (-1.67%) and crude (-2.30%).
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold is in a clear uptrend. The close at 2871.6001 is above the pivot of 2866.7000, with resistance at R1 2885.4000 and support at S1 2852.9000. The ATR is 33.3072, indicating elevated daily range. The close at 96.10% of the 20-day channel (high 2880.5, low 2653.5) signals a stretched but momentum-driven posture. The 5-day change of +3.70% and 20-day change of +8.09% confirm trend strength. A sustained break above 2885.40 could open further upside; a failure to hold 2852.90 would suggest short-term exhaustion. Given the crowded CFTC long (209,533 net), chasing strength carries risk, and buying dips toward support is the more balanced approach.
Crude Oil (CL=F). Crude is in a downtrend. The close at 71.0300 is below the pivot of 71.6533, with resistance at R1 72.3466 and support at S1 70.3366. The ATR is 2.0750. The close at 3.60% of the 20-day channel (high 80.77, low 70.67) indicates the market is pressing the lower boundary. The 20-day change of -4.34% and the 47,395-contract CFTC unwind reinforce the bearish tone. A break below 70.3366 could accelerate losses toward the 20-day low of 70.67 (already breached intraday at 70.96). Conversely, reclaiming 72.3466 would be the first sign of stabilization. Selling rallies into resistance remains the trend-consistent posture, though oversold conditions warrant caution.
Copper (HG=F). Copper is in an uptrend and testing breakout territory. The close at 4.4345 is above the pivot of 4.4188, with resistance at R1 4.4516 and support at S1 4.4016. The ATR is 0.0610. The close at 99.40% of the 20-day channel (high 4.436, low 4.190) confirms the breakout posture. The 5-day change of +4.16% and 20-day change of +6.59% are constructive, and the CFTC net long build of 1,922 supports the move. A close above 4.4516 would confirm continuation; a drop below 4.4016 would neutralize the immediate setup. Buying dips toward 4.4016 is the trend-consistent approach.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset table for 2025-02-05 provides several informative ratios. The gold-silver ratio was 87.40, a level that reflects silver's relative underperformance on the day (-0.09%) versus gold (+0.64%) despite silver's stronger 5-day performance. The copper-gold ratio was 0.001544, and the oil-gold ratio was 0.0247 — the latter underscoring crude's weakness relative to gold. The crack spread (3-2-1) was 19.77, a constructive reading for refiners despite the crude decline.
The US Dollar Index at 107.5800 remains the dominant cross-asset driver. The inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities is evident in the day's action: crude (-2.30%) and soybeans (-1.67%) fell while copper (+2.12%) and gold (+0.64%) rose, suggesting metal-specific drivers are overriding the dollar headwind. The US 10-year yield at 4.4300% and the TIPS real yield at 2.0100% create a challenging backdrop for gold, yet gold's advance suggests safe-haven or central-bank demand is dominant.
The energy complex shows divergence: crude fell 2.30% while natural gas rose 3.29%, widening the CL-NG spread in gas's favor. Heating oil (HO=F) fell 1.88% to 2.3842 and RBOB gasoline (RB=F) fell 2.30% to 2.0507, confirming weakness across refined products. The VIX at 15.77 indicates low equity-market stress, which historically is not a strong tailwind for gold — another divergence.
8. Risk Factors
1. Crude oil positioning unwind. The 47,395-contract reduction in CFTC net length for the week ended 2025-02-04, combined with the EIA crude build of 8,664 thousand barrels, raises the risk of further downside toward the 20-day low of 70.67.
2. Crowded gold long. Net positioning of 209,533 contracts with a long-to-short ratio near 7.8:1 leaves gold vulnerable to a sharp liquidation should real yields rise further from 2.0100%.
3. Dollar strength. The DXY at 107.5800 continues to pressure dollar-denominated commodities, particularly crude and agricultural products.
4. Natural gas volatility. The 13.80% single-day decline on 2025-01-30 demonstrates extreme two-way risk; the 5-day change remains -4.95% despite the 3.29% bounce.
5. Agricultural softness. Soybeans (-1.67%), soybean meal (-1.82%), and soybean oil (-1.46%) all declined, with cocoa (CC=F) down 3.66% and cotton (CT=F) down 1.34%, signaling broad soft-commodity weakness.
9. Week Ahead
The provided economic calendar for the next seven days is empty (“N/A”), so no scheduled data releases are available. Investors should monitor the following themes over the next five trading days.
First, the aftermath of the CFTC positioning report for 2025-02-04 will be digested, with particular focus on whether the crude oil net-long reduction of 47,395 contracts continues or stabilizes. Second, the EIA weekly petroleum data will be updated, and the market will watch whether the 8,664 thousand-barrel crude build persists against refinery utilization of 84.50%. Third, the trajectory of the US Dollar Index at 107.5800 and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.0100% will remain critical for gold and the broader commodity complex. Fourth, any OPEC+ commentary or central bank communication would be market-moving, though none is confirmed in the provided data. Finally, the gold-silver ratio at 87.40 and the copper-gold ratio at 0.001544 will be watched for rotation signals between precious and industrial metals.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Closed 2871.6001 (+0.64%), at 96.10% of the 20-day channel. Pivot 2866.70, R1 2885.40, S1 2852.90. Crowded CFTC long (209,533 net) argues for buying dips rather than chasing.
- Silver: Closed 32.8570 (-0.09%), 5-day +5.18%. CFTC net long rose 10,297 to 36,247. Pivot 32.7830, R1 32.9310, S1 32.7090.
- Crude Oil: Closed 71.0300 (-2.30%), at 3.60% of the 20-day channel. CFTC net long fell 47,395 to 144,136. Pivot 71.6533, R1 72.3466, S1 70.3366. Trend remains lower.
- Natural Gas: Closed 3.3600 (+3.29%) but 5-day -4.95%. Pivot 3.2987, R1 3.4364, S1 3.2224.
- Copper: Closed 4.4345 (+2.12%), at 99.40% of the 20-day channel. CFTC net long rose 1,922 to 18,464. Pivot 4.4188, R1 4.4516, S1 4.4016. Breakout posture.
- Soybeans: Closed 1057.0000 (-1.67%). Pivot 1063.25, R1 1073.50, S1 1046.75.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.