1. Executive Summary
Gold settled at $2,909.00/oz on 2025-02-12, down 0.12% on the session but still up 1.30% over five days and 8.65% over twenty days, with the 20-day channel position at 85.70%. Silver outperformed, gaining 1.44% to $32.6950, while copper rose 2.25% to $4.6980 and sits at the 99.00% channel position. Crude oil was the weakest major, falling 2.66% to $71.37/bbl, with Brent down 2.36% at $75.18. Natural gas added 1.31% to $3.5650. The macro backdrop remains restrictive: the effective fed funds rate stands at 4.33%, the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.16%, and the 10-year nominal yield at 4.62%, while the dollar index sits at 107.94. CFTC data for the week ended 2025-02-11 shows managed-money net length falling in gold (-14,730 contracts to 194,803) and crude oil (-13,832 to 130,304), but rising in natural gas (+25,383 to 74,050) and copper (+5,969 to 24,433). The primary risk factor for today is the combination of a firm dollar, elevated real yields, and a soft crude tape pressuring the broader commodity complex, with EIA data showing crude inventories up 4,070 thousand barrels in the week of 2025-02-07.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at $2,909.00/oz on 2025-02-12, a decline of 0.12% on the day. The intraday range was $2,868.60 to $2,912.30, with the open at $2,902.00. Despite the modest daily loss, the metal remains 1.30% higher over five sessions and 8.65% higher over twenty sessions, with the 20-day channel position at 85.70% and the 20-day high at $2,945.40 against a 20-day low of $2,690.80. The ATR stands at $39.69, reflecting elevated realized volatility. The prior session, 2025-02-11, saw gold close at $2,912.50 after touching a high of $2,945.40, so the 2025-02-12 session represents consolidation below that spike high. Volume and open interest for the front contract are not available in the dataset.
Silver (SI=F). Silver was the strongest precious metal performer, closing at $32.6950 for a gain of 1.44%. The session opened at $31.965 and traded between $31.965 and $32.755. Over five days silver is down 0.49%, but over twenty days it is up 8.51%, with a 20-day channel position of 92.70% and a 20-day range of $30.2540 to $32.8880. The ATR is $0.6253. The gold/silver ratio stands at 88.97, per the cross-asset dataset.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI crude was the weakest major commodity, settling at $71.37/bbl for a decline of 2.66%. The session opened at $73.20, reached a high of $73.22, and printed a low of $71.17. Over five days crude is up 0.48%, but over twenty days it is down 7.91%, with the 20-day channel position at just 9.10% and a 20-day range of $70.43 to $80.77. The ATR is $1.8729. Brent (BZ=F) fell 2.36% to $75.18, with a 20-day channel position of 12.80%.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas closed at $3.5650, up 1.31%. The session opened at $3.510 and traded between $3.469 and $3.583. Over five days gas is up 6.10%, though over twenty days it remains down 10.16%, with a 20-day channel position of 43.00% and a 20-day range of $2.9900 to $4.3280. The ATR is $0.2421.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at $4.6980, up 2.25%, the strongest gain among the base metals tracked. The session opened at $4.698 and traded between $4.6925 and $4.698. Over five days copper is up 5.94% and over twenty days up 8.99%, with a 20-day channel position of 99.00% and a 20-day range of $4.2020 to $4.7030. The ATR is $0.0788.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans closed at $1,027.75/bu, down 1.51%. The session opened at $1,043.50 and traded between $1,024.50 and $1,047.00. Over five days soybeans are down 2.77% and over twenty days down 1.46%, with a 20-day channel position of 15.10% and a 20-day range of $1,018.50 to $1,079.75. The ATR is $18.75.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration on 2025-02-12 remains restrictive for commodity beta. The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) stands at 107.94, a level that continues to weigh on dollar-denominated raw materials. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is 4.6370, while the cross-asset dataset records the US 10-year yield at 4.6200. The 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) is 2.1600, a materially positive real rate that raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
The policy rate remains elevated: the effective fed funds rate (FEDFUNDS) is 4.3300 as of 2025-02-01. The Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) stands at $6,813,513 million as of 2025-02-12, indicating that quantitative tightening remains in progress. The overnight reverse repo facility (RRPONTSYD) holds $67.67 billion, a relatively low level of the financial system's liquidity buffer.
Inflation data show the unadjusted CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 319.6790 as of 2025-02-01, while the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) — the Fed's preferred inflation anchor — is 125.1450. The labor market remains firm, with total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,310 thousand and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.2000.
The yield curve, measured by the 10-year minus 2-year spread (T10Y2Y), is +0.2600, a positive but shallow slope consistent with a soft-landing rather than recession pricing. Credit conditions appear benign: the BofA high-yield option-adjusted spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) is 2.6500, a tight level that signals no acute liquidity stress. The VIX index is 15.89, indicating contained equity-market volatility. Equity futures are quoted at ES=F 6,072.75 and NQ=F 21,804.75, though daily percentage changes are not available in the dataset.
Taken together, the macro mix — a firm dollar, positive real yields, a still-restrictive policy rate, and ongoing QT — argues for selective rather than broad commodity exposure, with industrial metals and precious metals showing relative resilience against an energy complex under pressure.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the report date 2025-02-11, positioning across the major commodity markets was mixed, with notable reductions in gold and crude oil net length and additions in natural gas and copper.
Gold. Managed-money net length fell by 14,730 contracts week-over-week to 194,803, composed of 229,071 long and 34,268 short positions against total open interest of 528,719. The reduction in net length occurred even as gold prices remained near the upper end of their twenty-day range, suggesting some profit-taking or de-risking by trend-following accounts. The long-to-short ratio remains heavily skewed to the long side, a configuration that can amplify downside moves if momentum reverses.
Silver. Net length declined modestly by 1,871 contracts to 34,376, with 54,415 longs against 20,039 shorts and open interest of 164,251. Silver positioning is far less crowded than gold on an absolute basis, consistent with its higher beta and more volatile price action.
Crude Oil. Net length dropped by 13,832 contracts to 130,304, comprising 210,539 longs and 80,235 shorts against open interest of 1,788,275. The reduction in net length aligns with the 7.91% twenty-day decline in WTI and the weak 9.10% channel position, indicating that managed money has been reducing exposure into weakness.
Natural Gas. Net length rose sharply by 25,383 contracts to 74,050, with 210,994 longs and 136,944 shorts and open interest of 1,546,388. This was the largest weekly addition among the tracked markets and coincides with a 6.10% five-day gain in gas prices, suggesting momentum-driven buying.
Copper. Net length increased by 5,969 contracts to 24,433, composed of 79,403 longs and 54,970 shorts against open interest of 243,961. The build in copper length is consistent with the metal's 5.94% five-day and 8.99% twenty-day gains and its 99.00% channel position.
On a contrarian basis, the extreme long positioning in gold and the high channel positions in copper and silver warrant monitoring, while the reduced crude oil net length and low channel position may indicate that bearish positioning is becoming less crowded.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for the next seven days is not available in the dataset (“N/A”), so today's focus centers on the data already released and their implications.
The most significant scheduled input already in hand is the EIA weekly petroleum status report for the week of 2025-02-07. According to EIA data, crude inventories rose by 4,070 thousand barrels to 427,860 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories fell by 3,035 thousand barrels to 248,053 thousand barrels and distillate inventories rose by 135 thousand barrels to 118,615 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization stood at 85.00%. The crude build, combined with the 2.66% drop in WTI on 2025-02-12, points to a soft physical backdrop for crude.
Second, market participants will continue to digest the CFTC positioning data for 2025-02-11, particularly the reduction in gold and crude oil net length and the increase in natural gas and copper net length.
Third, the macro releases already published — the CPI index at 319.6790, the core PCE index at 125.1450, and the unemployment rate at 4.2000 — frame the policy debate. With the effective fed funds rate at 4.3300 and the 10-year real yield at 2.1600, the market's focus remains on whether disinflation progress justifies a less restrictive stance.
No geopolitical headlines are available in the dataset for the past 48 hours (“N/A”), and no USDA reports are listed in the calendar.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at $2,909.00, below the daily pivot of $2,896.63? No — the close is above the pivot of $2,896.6334, with resistance R1 at $2,924.6667 and support S1 at $2,880.9668. The ATR is $39.6928. The trend remains constructive: the metal is up 8.65% over twenty days and sits at the 85.70% channel position, with the 20-day high at $2,945.40 and the 20-day low at $2,690.80. However, the 2025-02-12 close below the prior session's $2,912.50 and the failure to hold the $2,945.40 spike high suggest near-term consolidation. A sustained break above R1 at $2,924.67 could open the path toward the 20-day high, while a loss of S1 at $2,880.97 would expose deeper support. Given the extended channel position and the reduction in CFTC net length, a buy-dips approach toward S1 may be preferred over chasing strength.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI closed at $71.37, below the pivot of $71.9200, with R1 at $72.6700 and S1 at $70.6200. The ATR is $1.8729. The trend is clearly negative: crude is down 7.91% over twenty days and sits at just the 9.10% channel position, with the 20-day low at $70.43 and the 20-day high at $80.77. The 2025-02-12 session printed a low of $71.17, close to the 20-day low. A break below S1 at $70.62 would confirm continuation of the downtrend, while a reclaim of the pivot at $71.92 would be needed to stabilize. Given the EIA crude build of 4,070 thousand barrels and the reduction in CFTC net length, rallies toward R1 at $72.67 may be sold.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at $4.6980, essentially at the pivot of $4.6962, with R1 at $4.6999 and S1 at $4.6944. The ATR is $0.0788. The trend is strongly positive: copper is up 5.94% over five days and 8.99% over twenty days, with a 99.00% channel position and a 20-day high of $4.7030 against a 20-day low of $4.2020. The metal is pressing against the top of its range. A breakout above R1 at $4.6999 could extend the advance, but the extreme channel position and the 2.25% single-day gain argue for caution; a pullback toward S1 at $4.6944 or the pivot at $4.6962 would be a more favorable entry for dip buyers.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset dataset for 2025-02-12 provides several key ratios. The gold/silver ratio stands at 88.97, a level that reflects silver's relative underperformance over the longer term despite its 1.44% gain on the day. The copper/gold ratio is 0.001615, and the oil/gold ratio is 0.0245, both consistent with a commodity complex in which precious and industrial metals have outperformed energy.
The crack spread (3-2-1) is 21.47, a reading that reflects the margin available to refiners; with WTI down 2.66% and refined products also weaker (heating oil HO=F -2.49%, RBOB gasoline RB=F -2.69%), the product complex moved in tandem with crude.
The dollar index at 107.94 remains the dominant cross-asset driver. A firm dollar typically correlates negatively with dollar-denominated commodities, and the 2025-02-12 session showed that relationship in the energy complex, where WTI fell 2.66% and Brent fell 2.36%. Precious metals, however, diverged: silver rose 1.44% and platinum (PL=F) gained 1.15% to $1,038.70, with platinum at a 100.00% channel position. Palladium (PA=F) fell 0.51% to $982.60.
In the base metals basket, copper's 2.25% gain stood out, while aluminum (ALI=F) fell 1.27% to $2,587.50 and zinc (ZNC=F) was unchanged at $2,297.00. The VIX at 15.89 suggests contained risk aversion, which is generally supportive of carry and industrial demand expectations.
In agriculture, coffee (KC=F) surged 4.44% to $431.80 and sits at a 94.70% channel position, while sugar (SB=F) fell 0.55% to $19.76, corn (ZC=F) rose 1.29% to $490.25, and wheat (ZW=F) fell 0.48% to $574.25. Soybean meal (ZM=F) fell 0.84% to $294.10 and sits at just a 2.70% channel position, the weakest in the grain complex.
8. Risk Factors
1. Dollar strength. The dollar index at 107.94 poses a persistent headwind to dollar-denominated commodities, particularly crude oil and base metals.
2. Elevated real yields. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.1600 raises the opportunity cost of holding gold and other non-yielding assets, potentially capping further upside.
3. Crude oil inventory build. According to EIA data for the week of 2025-02-07, crude inventories rose by 4,070 thousand barrels, adding to the bearish physical backdrop for WTI, which is already down 7.91% over twenty days.
4. Crowded positioning. Gold net length at 194,803 contracts and copper at a 99.00% channel position represent crowded trades that could unwind sharply on a momentum reversal.
5. Policy uncertainty. With the effective fed funds rate at 4.3300 and the Fed's balance sheet at $6,813,513 million amid ongoing QT, any shift in policy expectations could trigger cross-asset volatility.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the next seven days is not available in the dataset (“N/A”), so the week-ahead preview is limited to the data already published and the recurring reports that market participants typically monitor.
On the energy side, the next EIA weekly petroleum status report will follow the 2025-02-07 data, which showed a crude build of 4,070 thousand barrels, a gasoline draw of 3,035 thousand barrels, and distillate build of 135 thousand barrels, with refinery utilization at 85.00%. Market participants will watch whether the crude build persists.
On the macro side, the key reference points remain the CPI index at 319.6790, the core PCE index at 125.1450, the unemployment rate at 4.2000, and nonfarm payrolls at 158,310 thousand. Any updates to these series will shape rate expectations against the current effective fed funds rate of 4.3300.
On the positioning side, the next CFTC report will update the 2025-02-11 figures, with particular attention on whether gold net length (194,803) and crude oil net length (130,304) continue to decline, and whether natural gas net length (74,050) extends its 25,383-contract weekly increase.
No OPEC+ meetings or central bank events are listed in the available calendar data.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Closed $2,909.00 (-0.12%); pivot $2,896.63, R1 $2,924.67, S1 $2,880.97; CFTC net length -14,730 to 194,803. Watch S1 for dip-buying interest.
- Silver: Closed $32.6950 (+1.44%); pivot $32.4717, R1 $32.9784, S1 $32.1884; gold/silver ratio 88.97.
- Crude Oil: Closed $71.37 (-2.66%); pivot $71.92, R1 $72.67, S1 $70.62; EIA crude build +4,070 thousand barrels; CFTC net length -13,832 to 130,304.
- Natural Gas: Closed $3.5650 (+1.31%); pivot $3.5390, R1 $3.6090, S1 $3.4950; CFTC net length +25,383 to 74,050.
- Copper: Closed $4.6980 (+2.25%); pivot $4.6962, R1 $4.6999, S1 $4.6944; 99.00% channel position; CFTC net length +5,969 to 24,433.
- Soybeans: Closed $1,027.75 (-1.51%); pivot $1,033.08, R1 $1,041.67, S1 $1,019.17.
- Macro: DXY 107.94; US10Y 4.62%; 10Y TIPS real yield 2.16%; fed funds 4.33%; VIX 15.89.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.