1. Executive Summary
As of the 2025-02-13 close, gold settled at 2925.8999, up 0.58% on the day, with a 5-day change of 2.45% and a 20-day change of 7.87%. The metal's 20-day channel position stands at 91.20%, with an ATR of 39.4428, indicating that price is trading in the upper reaches of its recent range. Silver closed at 32.6500, down 0.14%, with a 5-day change of 0.41% and a 20-day change of 4.25%; its channel position is 91.00% and ATR is 0.6212. Copper was the strongest performer among the base metals, settling at 4.7690, up 1.51%, with a 5-day change of 7.08% and a 20-day change of 9.39%. Copper's channel position is 99.80%, effectively at the top of its 20-day range, with an ATR of 0.0798.
In energy, crude oil (CL=F) closed at 71.2900, down 0.11%, with a 5-day change of 0.96% and a 20-day change of -10.93%. The 20-day channel position is 10.30%, placing crude near the bottom of its recent range, with an ATR of 1.8857. Natural gas (NG=F) settled at 3.6280, up 1.77%, with a 5-day change of 6.46% and a 20-day change of -11.14%; its channel position is 47.70% and ATR is 0.2406. Soybeans (ZS=F) closed at 1030.0000, up 0.22%, with a 5-day change of -2.88% and a 20-day change of -1.22%, and a channel position of 18.80%.
The key macro driver remains the level of real rates. According to the provided macro data, the US 10-year TIPS real rate (DFII10) stands at 2.0800 as of 2025-02-13, while the fed funds effective rate (FEDFUNDS) is 4.3300 as of 2025-02-01. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (T10Y2Y) is 0.2100, and the BofA Merrill Lynch high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) is 2.6500, suggesting contained credit stress. The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) is quoted at 107.3100, and the VIX index stands at 15.10, indicating relatively subdued equity volatility.
The primary risk factor for today is the tension between stretched long positioning and elevated real rates. CFTC data for the week ended 2025-02-11 shows gold net length at 194803 contracts, a weekly decline of 14730, while copper net length rose 5969 to 24433. With gold's channel position at 91.20% and copper's at 99.80%, any hawkish repricing in real rates could trigger profit-taking. Natural gas net length rose 25383 to 74050, the largest weekly build among the tracked contracts, even as the 20-day price change remains -11.14%.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at 2925.8999 on 2025-02-13, up 0.58% from the prior close of 2909. The session opened at 2911.3, traded a high of 2937.7 and a low of 2910.6001, and closed near the upper end of the intraday range. The 5-day change is 2.45% and the 20-day change is 7.87%. The 20-day high is 2945.3999 and the 20-day low is 2724.8000, giving a channel position of 91.20%. ATR is 39.4428. Volume and open interest for the session are not available in the provided data. The move extends a sequence of higher closes, with the metal having advanced from 2746.3999 on 2025-01-16 to the current level.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at 32.6500, down 0.14% from 32.695. The session opened at 32.835, traded a high of 32.88 and a low of 32.535. The 5-day change is 0.41% and the 20-day change is 4.25%. The 20-day high is 32.8880 and the 20-day low is 30.2540, giving a channel position of 91.00%. ATR is 0.6212. Silver's underperformance relative to gold on the day is reflected in the gold-silver ratio of 89.61.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI crude settled at 71.2900, down 0.11% from 71.37. The session opened at 71.24, traded a high of 71.6 and a low of 70.22. The 5-day change is 0.96% and the 20-day change is -10.93%. The 20-day high is 80.5900 and the 20-day low is 70.2200, giving a channel position of 10.30%. ATR is 1.8857. Brent (BZ=F) settled at 75.0200, down 0.21%, with a 5-day change of 0.98% and a 20-day change of -8.55%. The WTI-Brent spread implied by these settlements is approximately -3.73.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas settled at 3.6280, up 1.77% from 3.565. The session opened at 3.591, traded a high of 3.786 and a low of 3.583. The 5-day change is 6.46% and the 20-day change is -11.14%. The 20-day high is 4.3280 and the 20-day low is 2.9900, giving a channel position of 47.70%. ATR is 0.2406.
Copper (HG=F). Copper settled at 4.7690, up 1.51% from 4.698. The session opened at 4.766, traded a high of 4.77 and a low of 4.764. The 5-day change is 7.08% and the 20-day change is 9.39%. The 20-day high is 4.7700 and the 20-day low is 4.2020, giving a channel position of 99.80%. ATR is 0.0798.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans settled at 1030.0000, up 0.22% from 1027.75. The session opened at 1028.5, traded a high of 1032.5 and a low of 1024. The 5-day change is -2.88% and the 20-day change is -1.22%. The 20-day high is 1079.7500 and the 20-day low is 1018.5000, giving a channel position of 18.80%. ATR is 18.0179. In the broader agricultural complex, corn (ZC=F) settled at 493.5000, up 0.66%, and wheat (ZW=F) settled at 577.7500, up 0.61%.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration as of 2025-02-13 is defined by a still-restrictive policy rate and positive real yields. The fed funds effective rate (FEDFUNDS) stands at 4.3300 as of 2025-02-01, while the US 10-year TIPS real rate (DFII10) is 2.0800 as of 2025-02-13. The nominal 10-year yield proxy (^TNX) is quoted at 4.5250, and the cross-asset table lists the US 10-year yield at 4.5200. The 10-year minus 2-year spread (T10Y2Y) is 0.2100, a positive but modest slope that is consistent with a soft-landing rather than recession pricing.
Inflation data show the unadjusted CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 319.6790 as of 2025-02-01, and the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) at 125.1450 as of 2025-02-01. The labor market remains firm, with non-farm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158310 thousand as of 2025-02-01 and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.2000. Credit conditions appear benign: the BofA Merrill Lynch high-yield spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) is 2.6500 as of 2025-02-13, a level that does not signal acute liquidity stress.
Liquidity plumbing shows the Federal Reserve's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) at 6813513 million USD as of 2025-02-12, and the overnight reverse repo facility (RRPONTSYD) at 67.82 billion USD as of 2025-02-13. The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) is quoted at 107.3100, a firm level that historically acts as a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. Equity futures are quoted at ES=F 6135.2500 and NQ=F 22113.2500, with the VIX at 15.10, indicating contained risk aversion.
The combination of a 2.0800 real rate and a 107.3100 dollar index is a meaningful constraint on the gold rally, yet gold's 20-day change of 7.87% and channel position of 91.20% show the metal has been resilient. This divergence suggests that demand for gold is being driven by factors other than the pure real-rate channel, potentially including reserve diversification and geopolitical hedging, though the provided data do not include headline attribution. For industrial metals, copper's 20-day gain of 9.39% against a firm dollar points to supply-side or demand-anticipation dynamics rather than a pure macro-FX trade.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the report date 2025-02-11, positioning across the major commodity contracts was mixed, with notable reductions in precious metals and crude oil and a substantial build in natural gas.
Gold. Net position was 194803 contracts, composed of 229071 long and 34268 short, against open interest of 528719. The weekly change was -14730, meaning funds reduced net length. Despite this reduction, gold's net length remains the largest among the tracked contracts in absolute terms, and the long-to-short ratio of approximately 6.7:1 indicates a still-crowded long. The reduction in net length while price rose 7.87% over 20 days suggests some profit-taking into strength.
Silver. Net position was 34376 contracts, with 54415 long and 20039 short, against open interest of 164251. The weekly change was -1871, a modest reduction. Silver's net length is far smaller than gold's, and the long-to-short ratio of approximately 2.7:1 is less stretched.
Crude Oil. Net position was 130304 contracts, with 210539 long and 80235 short, against open interest of 1788275. The weekly change was -13832, a significant reduction in net length. This aligns with crude's 20-day price change of -10.93% and channel position of 10.30%, indicating that funds have been reducing exposure as price declined.
Natural Gas. Net position was 74050 contracts, with 210994 long and 136944 short, against open interest of 1546388. The weekly change was +25383, the largest weekly build among the tracked contracts. This build occurred even as natural gas posted a 20-day change of -11.14%, suggesting funds positioned for a rebound, which was partially validated by the 5-day change of 6.46% and the 1.77% gain on 2025-02-13.
Copper. Net position was 24433 contracts, with 79403 long and 54970 short, against open interest of 243961. The weekly change was +5969, a build in net length. This is consistent with copper's strong 20-day gain of 9.39% and channel position of 99.80%. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.4:1 is the least stretched among the precious and base metals tracked.
From a contrarian perspective, gold's large absolute net length alongside a weekly reduction and a 91.20% channel position warrants monitoring for crowded-trade risk. Natural gas's large weekly build against a still-negative 20-day price change represents a potential momentum-reversal trade if the recent 5-day strength persists.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar provided for the coming seven days is empty (N/A), so no scheduled data releases can be confirmed from the supplied dataset. Traders should nonetheless monitor the following from the available data.
First, the EIA weekly inventory report dated 2025-02-07 shows crude inventory at 427860 thousand barrels, a weekly change of +4070 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventory was 248053 thousand barrels, a weekly change of -3035 thousand barrels, and distillate inventory was 118615 thousand barrels, a weekly change of +135 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization was 85.00%. The crude build of 4070 thousand barrels is a bearish input for crude, consistent with the 20-day price decline of 10.93% and the low channel position of 10.30%.
Second, the real-rate and dollar complex remains the dominant cross-asset driver. With DFII10 at 2.0800 and DX-Y.NYB at 107.3100, any further firming in real yields would be a headwind for gold and silver, both of which sit above the 90% channel position. Conversely, a softening in real rates could extend the precious-metals advance.
Third, positioning flows warrant attention. The CFTC data for 2025-02-11 showed a 25383-contract build in natural gas net length and a 5969-contract build in copper net length, while gold and crude saw reductions of 14730 and 13832 respectively. Follow-through in these flows could shape intraday direction.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at 2925.8999, above the pivot of 2924.7333. Immediate resistance is R1 at 2938.8665, and immediate support is S1 at 2911.7666. The 20-day high is 2945.3999 and the 20-day low is 2724.8000, with a channel position of 91.20%, placing price in the upper decile of its range. ATR is 39.4428, indicating a daily expected range of roughly 39.4 dollars. The trend is clearly upward on a 5-day (2.45%) and 20-day (7.87%) basis. With price above the pivot and channel position elevated, the setup favors buying dips toward S1 at 2911.7666 while respecting the risk of a mean-reversion pullback given the stretched positioning. A sustained break above R1 at 2938.8665 would open the 20-day high at 2945.3999.
Crude Oil (CL=F). Crude closed at 71.2900, above the pivot of 71.0367. Resistance is R1 at 71.8534, and support is S1 at 70.4734. The 20-day high is 80.5900 and the 20-day low is 70.2200, with a channel position of 10.30%, placing price near the bottom of its range. ATR is 1.8857. The trend is downward on a 20-day basis (-10.93%) but modestly positive over 5 days (+0.96%). The combination of a low channel position and a large weekly reduction in CFTC net length (-13832) suggests the market is searching for a floor. The setup favors a cautious buy-dip approach near S1 at 70.4734, with a break below the 20-day low at 70.2200 invalidating the stabilization thesis. A rally toward R1 at 71.8534 would face the first test of the downtrend.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at 4.7690, marginally above the pivot of 4.7677. Resistance is R1 at 4.7714, and support is S1 at 4.7654. The 20-day high is 4.7700 and the 20-day low is 4.2020, with a channel position of 99.80%, effectively at the top of the range. ATR is 0.0798. The trend is strongly upward on a 5-day (7.08%) and 20-day (9.39%) basis. With price pinned at the 20-day high and the pivot-to-R1 band extremely narrow, the risk of a sharp mean-reversion move is elevated. The setup favors avoiding fresh longs at these levels and instead waiting for a pullback toward the pivot or S1, while acknowledging that momentum remains firmly positive.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset table for 2025-02-13 provides several key ratios. The gold-silver ratio is 89.61, reflecting silver's underperformance on the day (silver -0.14% versus gold +0.58%). The copper-gold ratio is 0.001630, and the oil-gold ratio is 0.0244, both reflecting the relative strength of gold against industrial and energy commodities over the recent period. The crack spread (321) is 22.09, a measure of refining margin that sits alongside the EIA refinery utilization of 85.00%.
The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) is 107.3100, and the US 10-year yield is 4.5200. The VIX is 15.10, indicating low equity-market volatility and a generally risk-on backdrop. The Fed's overnight reverse repo volume is 67.82 billion USD.
On the gold versus real-yield relationship, gold's 20-day gain of 7.87% has occurred alongside a real rate (DFII10) of 2.0800. Historically, a positive real rate of this magnitude would be expected to weigh on gold; the fact that gold has rallied suggests other demand drivers are at work. This divergence is a key cross-asset signal to monitor.
Within the energy complex, the crude-versus-natural-gas relationship shows divergence: crude is down 10.93% over 20 days while natural gas is down 11.14% over the same window, but over 5 days crude is up 0.96% and natural gas is up 6.46%, indicating natural gas has outperformed recently. The WTI-Brent spread, implied by CL=F at 71.2900 and BZ=F at 75.0200, is approximately -3.73.
In the base metals basket, copper's 20-day gain of 9.39% stands out against a firm dollar, suggesting idiosyncratic strength. Aluminum (ALI=F) settled at 2571.7500, down 0.61%, with a 20-day change of -1.40%, and zinc (ZNC=F) was unchanged at 2297.0000. The dispersion within base metals favors copper over aluminum on a relative basis.
8. Risk Factors
1. Real-rate repricing. With DFII10 at 2.0800 and gold at a 91.20% channel position, a further rise in real yields could trigger profit-taking in precious metals. CFTC data already shows a 14730-contract reduction in gold net length for the week ended 2025-02-11.
2. Crowded long positioning. Gold net length of 194803 contracts and copper's 99.80% channel position represent crowded trades. A reversal in momentum could be amplified by position unwinding.
3. Crude oil inventory build. The EIA report dated 2025-02-07 showed a crude inventory build of 4070 thousand barrels, with refinery utilization at 85.00%. Continued builds would pressure crude, which already sits at a 10.30% channel position.
4. Dollar strength. The dollar index at 107.3100 is a broad headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. A further advance could cap gains across the complex.
5. Natural gas positioning reversal. The 25383-contract weekly build in natural gas net length against a -11.14% 20-day price change creates vulnerability if the recent 5-day rebound (+6.46%) stalls.
9. Week Ahead
The provided economic calendar for the next seven days is empty (N/A), so no specific scheduled releases can be confirmed from the dataset. Based on the available data, the market will continue to digest the 2025-02-07 EIA inventory report, which showed a crude build of 4070 thousand barrels, a gasoline draw of 3035 thousand barrels, and distillate build of 135 thousand barrels at 85.00% refinery utilization.
Key levels to watch over the coming sessions include gold's 20-day high at 2945.3999 and pivot support at 2911.7666; crude's 20-day low at 70.2200 and R1 at 71.8534; copper's 20-day high at 4.7700; and natural gas's 20-day high at 4.3280 against the recent close of 3.6280.
On the macro side, the next readings of CPI (CPIAUCSL at 319.6790), core PCE (PCEPILFE at 125.1450), payrolls (PAYEMS at 158310 thousand), and unemployment (UNRATE at 4.2000) will be the primary catalysts for real-rate and dollar direction. The Fed's balance sheet (RESPPANWW at 6813513 million USD) and reverse repo volume (67.82 billion USD) will inform liquidity conditions. No OPEC+ or central bank meeting dates are available in the provided data.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Closed 2925.8999, +0.58%. Pivot 2924.7333, R1 2938.8665, S1 2911.7666. Channel position 91.20%. Trend up; watch for crowded-long risk after a 14730-contract CFTC net-length reduction.
- Silver: Closed 32.6500, -0.14%. Pivot 32.6883, R1 32.8416, S1 32.4966. Gold-silver ratio 89.61.
- Crude Oil: Closed 71.2900, -0.11%. Pivot 71.0367, R1 71.8534, S1 70.4734. Channel position 10.30%; EIA crude build of 4070 thousand barrels.
- Natural Gas: Closed 3.6280, +1.77%. Pivot 3.6657, R1 3.7484, S1 3.5454. CFTC net length +25383.
- Copper: Closed 4.7690, +1.51%. Pivot 4.7677, R1 4.7714, S1 4.7654. Channel position 99.80%; CFTC net length +5969.
- Soybeans: Closed 1030.0000, +0.22%. Pivot 1028.8333, R1 1033.6666, S1 1025.1666. Channel position 18.80%.
- Macro: DFII10 2.0800, FEDFUNDS 4.3300, T10Y2Y 0.2100, BAMLH0A0HYM2 2.6500, DXY 107.3100, VIX 15.10.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.